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2024.03.13 Level Forecast and Spring Regulation Strategy

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.46 m (1057.9 ft), a 45th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 2 cm (0.5 in) over the last week and is expected to remain relatively stable, holding steady or declining 1 cm (0.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is schedule to decrease to 275 m3/s on Thursday, March 14th, and to 250 m3/s on Monday, March 18th.

Each of these flow changes will cause the level of the Winnipeg River to decrease by approximately 5 cm (2 in) directly downstream of the Norman Dam and by 2 cm (0.5 in) above the Dalles. The level at Minaki will not be affected by these flow changes.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.66 m (1163.58 ft), a 25th percentile level, which is below normal for this time of year. The lake level declined by 6 cm (2.4 in) over the past week and is expected to decline by 2 to 3 cm (0.8 to 1.2 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 175 m3/s with no changes scheduled as this time.

Spring Regulation Strategy

On March 5, the LWCB held its spring Regulation Meeting in Kenora, attended by specific interest groups and resource agencies, and adopted its Spring Regulation Strategy. The strategy outlines regulation targets for various inflow conditions for the period of March to the end of June. The Secretariat presented data and statistics on the extremely low snowpack, unusual winter rain events and record breaking high air temperatures experienced over the winter. Many meeting attendees provided observations on the mild winter conditions and voiced their concern for dry conditions persisting into the spring.

For Lake of the Woods, the strategy targets a normal level for end of March, slightly higher than the target last year, to maintain storage in case of continued dry conditions. Although there is some snowpack locally around Lake of the Woods, the Rainy-Namakan basin upstream has very little to no snow on the ground. Spring outflows from Rainy Lake are expected to remain low, providing less inflow than usual to Lake of the Woods for the lake to refill this spring.

For Lac Seul, the strategy targets mid-April levels that are slightly lower than the preferences for fish spawning, due to the lack of inflow over the winter and persisting dry conditions since last year in this part of the basin. Inflows to Lac Seul have been below normal over the course of the winter and the snowpack is lower than or close to normal in some areas. Outflows have been reduced over the month of February to stop lake level drawdown and hedge against the risk of low spring inflows.

2024.03.07 Level Forecast

A significant precipitation event hit the basin late Saturday March 2nd with the highest amounts of precipitation, in the form of snow, ice pellets and freezing rain, observed North of Atikokan. Precipitation continued through Monday March 4th with totals at Kenora of 6 cm and at Ear Falls of 7.7 cm. As temperatures fluctuated during the event some of this precipitation came in the form of rain, especially for the southern regions of the basin.

Precipitation Totals March 2nd

Precipitation Totals March 2nd and 3rd

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.48 m (1058.0 ft), a 45th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 2 cm (0.5 in) over the last week and is expected to remain relatively stable, holding steady or declining 1 cm (0.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 350 m3/s. Outflow reductions to 325 m3/s and 300 m3/s are scheduled for Friday March 8th and Monday March 11th respectively.

Each of these flow changes will cause the level of the Winnipeg River to decrease by approximately 5 cm (2 in) directly downstream of the Norman Dam and by 2 cm (0.5 in) above the Dalles. The level at Minaki will not be affected by these flow changes.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.71 m (1163.75 ft), a 25th percentile level, which is below normal for this time of year. The lake level declined by 4 cm (1.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decline by 1 to 2 cm (0.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 225 m3/s with an outflow decrease to 175 m3/s scheduled for Friday March 8th.

2024.02.29 Level Forecast

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.5 m (1058.07 ft), a 40th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the last week and is expected to remain relatively stable, declining 2 cm (1 in) or increasing by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.75 m (1163.88 ft), a 20th percentile level, which is below normal for this time of year. The lake level declined by 6 cm (2.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decline by 2 to 6 cm (1 to 2.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 225 m3/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

2024.02.22 Level Forecast

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.51 m (1058.1 ft), a 40th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 2 cm (1 in) over the last week and is expected to decline by 1 to 2 cm (0.5 to 1 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.81 m (1164.1 ft), a 20th percentile level, which is below normal for this time of year. The lake level declined by 8 cm (3 in) over the past week and is expected to decline by 4 to 5 cm (1.5 to 2 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 225 m3/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

2024.02.15 Level Forecast and Lac Seul Outflow Reduction

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.54 m (1058.2 ft), a 40th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level remained stable over the past week and is expected to decline by up to 2 cm (0.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.89 m (1164.3 ft), a 20th percentile level, which is below normal for this time of year. The lake level declined by 5 cm (2 in) over the past week and is expected to decline by 4 to 5 cm (1.5 to 2 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow will be reduced to 225 m3/s on Monday, February19.

2024.02.08 Weather Alerts and Level Forecast

A Colorado Low is bringing warm weather and rainfall to the Winnipeg River basin today. Environment and Climate Change Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement detailing the expected conditions. Because the ground is frozen and there is very little snowpack to absorb the rain, overland runoff and localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible. The mild and wet weather will also reduce the quality and stability of any ice that has formed this winter. Caution is advised.

Although the rain will cause rapidly increasing river flows and increased lake inflows, there is no concern for flooding of the major lakes. The rain will reduce or eliminate the snowpack covering the basin and conditions are forecast to be dry with colder temperatures over the next week. Adjustments to lake outflows may be required over the next few weeks depending on conditions.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.53 m (1058.2 ft), a 30th percentile level, near the bottom of the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 2 cm (0.5 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 1 to 3 cm (0.5 to 1 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.94 m (1164.5 ft), a 15th percentile level, which is below normal for this time of year. The lake level declined by 10 cm (3.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decline by 4 to 6 cm (1.5 to 2.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 275 m3/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

2024.02.01 Special Notice on Basin Conditions and Level Forecast

A Special Notice on Basin Conditions has been posted to address concerns about the unusual winter conditions and recent regulation decisions.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.56 m (1058.2 ft), a 20th percentile level, near the bottom of the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 2 cm (0.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decline by 1 to 2 cm (0.5 to 1 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no changes scheduled.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.05 m (1164.8 ft), a 10th percentile level, which is below normal for this time of year. The lake level declined by 10 cm (3.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decline by 9 to 10 cm (3 to 3.5 in) over the next week.

On Wednesday, February 7, maintenance at the Ear Falls Dam will result in a temporary outage with Lac Seul authorized outflow dropping to 240 m3/s that day. Once the maintenance is complete, Lac Seul authorized outflow will be restored to a new decreased authorized outflow of 275 m3/s on February 7. This outflow reduction will help to slow the rate of lake level decline.

2024.01.25 Level Forecast and Lake of the Woods Outflow Increase

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.58 m (1058.3 ft), a 30th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decline by 2 to 3 cm (0.5 to 1 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow was increased to 350 m3/s today, January 25.

Maintenance at the Kenora Powerhouse is scheduled to end today, in conjunction with the authorized outflow increase. These flow changes will cause the level of the Winnipeg River to fluctuate by approximately 4 cm (2 in) directly downstream of the Norman Dam and by 2 cm (0.5 in) above the Dalles. The level at Minaki will not be affected by these flow changes.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.15 m (1165.2 ft), a 15th percentile level for this time of year. The lake level declined by 10 cm (3.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decline by 10 cm (3.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 325 m3/s with no changes scheduled this week.

To slow the rate of level decline on Lac Seul, a first outflow reduction is tentatively scheduled for February 7. More details will be provided next week.

2024.01.18 Level Forecast

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.58 m (1058.3 ft), a 30th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decline by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 325 m3/s with no changes scheduled.

Due to maintenance at the Kenora Powerhouse, small flow changes are expected on January 24 and 25. This will cause the level of the Winnipeg River to temporarily increase by approximately 4 cm (2 in) directly downstream of the Norman Dam.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.25 m (1165.5 ft), a 10th percentile level for this time of year. The lake level declined by 10 cm (3.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decline by 9 to 10 cm (3.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 325 m3/s with no changes scheduled.

2024.01.16 Kenora Powerhouse and Norman Dam Maintenance Outages

Over the next few weeks, H2O Power will be conducting maintenance on the generators at the Kenora Powerhouse and Norman Dam. This will result in temporary generator outages and outflow adjustments at either dam. H2O Power has adjusted their operations to minimize the downstream impacts of this maintenance. There will be no change to the Lake of the Woods authorized outflow, which is currently at 325 m3/s.

Over two days starting on January 17, a flow switch of 25 m3/s between the Kenora Powerhouse and the Norman Dam is scheduled. This flow change will cause small water level fluctuations downstream of the dams. The level of the Winnipeg River is expected to increase by approximately 4 cm (2 in) directly downstream of the Norman Dam.

The same flow switch will occur over a two day period starting on January 24.

Maintenance at the Norman Dam, that will not affect outflows, is scheduled for January 31, as well as February 7, 14, 21 and 28.

If you have any questions or concerns, please contact Secretariat staff at secretariat@lwcb.ca or 1-800-661-5922.