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2024.07.25 Conditions Update

The basin received moderate precipitation over the last week. As a result, inflows to the major lakes have remained high. Levels on Rainy and Namakan lakes as well as Lake of the Woods continue to decrease. With a large rainfall event forecast for July 27th and 28th, conditions will remain wet. This rainfall event will cause inflows to temporarily increase and will likely cause Rainy Lake and Lake of the Woods levels to stabilize or increase.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.31 m (1060.72 ft), an 80th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 2 cm (1 in) over the last week and could decrease by 2 cm (1 in) or increase by 5 cm (2 in), over the next week, depending on precipitation amounts . Lake of the Woods outflow is 1062 m3/s with all sluices fully open at the Norman Dam in Kenora. The dams cannot be opened any more and outflow will rise and fall with the lake level.  

With the Norman Dam fully open, outflows will change with lake levels and so will levels along the Winnipeg River.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.36 m (1169.16 ft), a 30th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 3 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 4 cm (1.5 in) or decrease by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no additional changes currently scheduled.

2024.07.18 Conditions Update

Moderate amounts of precipitation fell over the basin last week. Despite the rain, inflows to all major lakes have continued to decrease. Namakan Lake levels continue to decline and this week Rainy Lake level has stabilized. Lake of the Woods levels have also stabilized and are currently declining. With minimal precipitation in the forecast this trend is expected to continue.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.33 m (1060.79 ft), an 80th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 2 cm (1 in) over the last week and is expected to continue decreasing by 2 to 4 cm, over the next week, depending on precipitation amounts . Lake of the Woods outflow is 1099 m3/s with all sluices fully open at the Norman Dam in Kenora. The dams cannot be opened any more and outflow will rise and fall with the lake level.  

With lake levels expected to slowly decline, outflows and levels along the Winnipeg River are expected to decline in a similar manner.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.34 m (1169.09 ft), a 35th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 2 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 1 to 3 cm (0.5 to 1 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no additional changes currently scheduled.

2024.07.11 Conditions Update

After experiencing very wet conditions over the last couple of months, the Winnipeg River basin received less precipitation over the last week.The dry conditions have led to decreasing tributary flows and lake inflows across most of the basin. Lower inflows have helped slow the rate of lake level rise with conditions stabilizing over the past few days. There is moderate to heavy rainfall in the forecast early next week which could lead to increasing flows.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.35 m (1060.86 ft), an 80th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 2 cm (1 in) over the last week and is expected to remain relatively stable, over the next week, depending on precipitation amounts and upstream flow changes. Lake of the Woods outflow is 1070 m3/s with all sluices fully open at the Norman Dam in Kenora. The dams cannot be opened any more and outflow will rise and fall with the lake level.  

With lake levels expected to remain relatively stable, outflows are not expected to vary significantly. As such, levels along the Winnipeg River are expected to remain stable. Levels may vary as a result of local inflows.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.32 m (1169.03 ft), a 35th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 6 cm (2.5 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 7 to 12 cm (3 to 5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 350 m3/s with no additional changes currently scheduled.

2024.07.04 Winnipeg River Conditions and Level Forecasts

Over the last month, outflow from Lake of the Woods has been steadily increased due to sustained high inflows to the lake and rising water levels. These outflow increases have caused levels along the Winnipeg River in both Ontario and Manitoba to rise by several feet. River levels near Kenora have come up 285 cm (112 in) since mid-May. Further downstream, natural constrictions in the river hold back water and the level of the Winnipeg River is affected differently by the outflow from Lake of the Woods. The graph and map below show the water level at different locations along the Winnipeg River for different outflows from Lake of the Woods. The current outflow is close to 1100 m3/s, which means river levels are close to those shown by the green line in the graph.

At the town of Minaki, the river level is normally controlled by operations at the Whitedog Dam. However, because outflow from Lake of the Woods has been increased above 700 m3/s, the dam can no longer control water levels and they have begun to rise as well. The level at Minaki has increased by 93 cm (37.5 in) since June 1st, just before Lake of the Woods outflow rose above 700 m3/s, which is 92 cm (37 in) above the normal level of 316.09 m. Further downstream in Manitoba, levels along the Winnipeg River have also increased and are now above their normal range for this time of year. The level at Nutimik Lake has increased by 105 cm (41 in) since June 1st.

All sluice gates at the Norman Dam in Kenora are now open and outflow from Lake of the Woods can only increase with rising lake levels. The outflow will therefore increase gradually, unless heavy rainfall occurs. Over the next week, outflow is expected to increase by approximately 10 to 20 m3/s. Levels along the Winnipeg River will therefore rise by:

Below the Norman Dam6 cm (2.5 in)
Above Kimberley Rapids5 cm (2 in)
Winnipeg River Marina5 cm (2 in)
Near Locke Bay5 cm (2 in)
Above Myrtle Rapids5 cm (2 in)
Above the Dalles5 cm (2 in)
Above Throat Rapids5 cm (2 in)
Minaki4 cm (1.5 in)
Estimated Changes in Winnipeg River Levels

For levels on the Winnipeg River in Manitoba, Manitoba Hydro provides a water level forecast: https://www.hydro.mb.ca/corporate/operations/water-levels/

2024.07.03 Conditions Update and Outflow Increases

The Winnipeg River basin has been experiencing very wet conditions over the last couple months. Large precipitation systems, bringing heavy rainfall, have been impacting the basin every 1 to 2 weeks since mid-May. Over the month of June alone, the headwaters of the Rainy-Namakan basin received the highest amount of rainfall in the last 30 years, and other parts of the basin all ranked in the top half for highest precipitation over the last 30 years. On July 2nd, another such system brought 40 to 75 mm of rain, with the highest amounts over Lake of the Woods and the Rainy-Namakan basin.

These bar charts show the quarter monthly (roughly weekly) precipitation in the Rainy-Namakan and Lake of the Woods Basins. The black line shows the normal precipitation over the last 30 years. The blue bars show the observed precipitation. Since mid-May, many blue bars are much taller than the black line, showing well above average precipitation week after week.

This consistent rainfall has resulted in high tributary flows and high lake inflows. Outflows from the major lakes have been steadily increased to allow the excessive water to make its way downstream. However, because of the sustained rainfall and limits in outflow capacity, lake levels have been steadily rising. At Lake of the Woods, the lake level has increased 0.7 m (2.2 ft) since May 10th. The current level of 323.31 m (1060.7 ft) sits just above the normal range, or at 80th percentile. This means that in the last 30 years, the level of Lake of the Woods was higher than it is today 20% of the time, and lower than it is today 80% of the time. In 2022, on July 2nd, the level of Lake of the Woods was 324.1 m (1063.3 ft), which is 0.8 m (2.6 ft) higher than it is today. Which means the level came up twice as high in 2022 as it has so far this year.

The above plots compare the level of Lake of the Woods in 2022 (left) with 2024 (right).

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.31 m (1060.7 ft) , an 80th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 7 cm (3 in) over the last week and is expected to increase by 5 to 9 cm (2 to 3.5 in) over the next week, depending on precipitation amounts and upstream flow changes. Lake of the Woods outflow is 1111 m3/s with all sluice gates fully open at the Norman Dam in Kenora. The dams cannot be opened any more and outflow will rise as lake level rises and pushes more water through the dams.  

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.24 m (1168.8 ft), a 40th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 7 cm (3 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 3 to 7 cm (1 to 3 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow was increased to 350 m3/s Tuesday July 2nd with no additional changes currently scheduled.

2024.06.27 Outflow Increases and Conditions Update

Conditions in the Winnipeg River basin remain very wet. Although there was a dry period following the large rainfall event on June 18th and 19th, the magnitude of the event coupled with more recent rain has led to sustained high-normal flows across the basin. The headwaters of the Rainy-Namakan basin received the highest amounts of precipitation, which resulted in local flooding.

More rain is forecast to occur this weekend and into next week which will lead to continued high flows and rising levels across the basin. Inflows to Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul will increase with this upcoming precipitation.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.26 m (1060.6 ft) , a 75th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 7 cm (3 in) over the last week and is expected to increase by 9 to 17 cm (3.5 to 7 in) over the next week, depending on precipitation amounts and upstream flow changes. The current outflow of Lake of the Woods is 1150 m3/s. With more rainfall in the forecast, all logs are being pulled from the Norman Dam, and outflow is expected to be reach 1200 m3/s by Friday, June 28th. This additional flow is expected to raise the level of the Winnipeg River as follows:

  • Below Norman Dam: 14 cm (5.5 in)

  • Above Kimberley Rapids: 12 cm (5 in)

  • Winnipeg River Marina: 12 cm (5 in)

  • Near Locke Bay: 12 cm (5 in)

  • Above Myrtle Rapids: 12 cm (5 in)

  • Above the Dalles: 12 cm (5 in)

  • Above Throat Rapids: 12 cm (5 in)

  • Minaki: 9 cm (3.5 in)

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.15 m (1168.5 ft), a 40th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 9 cm (3.5 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 13 to 19 cm (5 to 7.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 300 m3/s with no changes currently scheduled.

2024.06.19 Outflow Increases and Level Forecasts

Several lines of severe thunderstorms cross the Winnipeg River basin Tuesday June 18th. Rainfall totals reached up to 100 mm in some locations over the past 24 hours. Most of the basin received at least 30 mm of rain with areas around Rainy Lake and Namakan Lake seeing up to 75 mm. This precipitation has caused tributary flows to begin rising and inflows to the major lakes are expected to increase as a result of these storms.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.18 m (1060.3 ft) , a 60th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 6 cm (2.5 in) over the last week and is expected to increase by 5 to 8 cm (2 to 3 in) over the next week, depending on precipitation amounts and upstream flow changes. The current outflow of Lake of the Woods is 900 m3/s. With a few dry days in the forecast followed by a return of moderate precipitation, inflows are expected to remain high. An outflow increase to 1000 m3/s is scheduled for Thursday June 20th with another outflow increase to 1100 m3/s tentatively scheduled for Monday June 24th.

Each of these flow changes will cause a levels along the Winnipeg River to increase by approximately 30 cm, (12 in) directly downstream of the Norman Dam, by 22 cm (8.5 in) above the Dalles, and by 20 cm (8 in) at Minaki.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.01 m (1168.01 ft), a 45th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 14 cm (5.5 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 11 to 13 cm (4 to 5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 300 m3/s with no changes currently scheduled.

2024.06.17 Outflow Increases and Summer Regulation Strategy

On June 11th, the LWCB visited Lac Seul First Nation, where they met with Chief Clifford Bull and Councillors in Frenchman’s Head. Led by the Chief and other members of the First Nation, the LWCB were treated to an amazing boat tour of Lac Seul, and the opportunity to see many of the historical and significant areas of the First Nation. The boat tour ended on the shores of Manitou Miniss, one of Lac Seul First Nation’s sacred sites, where Mona Gordon, member of Grand Council Treaty #3 Women’s Council, honoured the LWCB by inviting them to participate in the Spring Offering for the Northern Direction.

On June 12th, the LWCB also visited the Wabigoon River hydrometric gauge with members of the Water Survey of Canada Winnipeg Operations Team, who provided a demonstration of a discharge measurement using a remote operated boat. That afternoon, the LWCB held its Regulation Meeting in Dryden, attended by specific interest groups and resource agencies, and adopted its Regulation Strategy for the next few months.

With less rain over the weekend we have seen inflows to Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul stabilize and begin to decline. At this time inflows are still in the high normal range for this time of year. There is still significant precipitation in the forecast this week and as such additional outflow increases from Lake of the Woods will be required.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.15 m (1060.2 ft) , a 60th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 7 cm (3 in) over the last week and is expected to increase by 3 to 11 cm (1 to 4 in) over the next week, depending on precipitation amounts and upstream flow changes. The current outflow of Lake of the Woods is 800 m3/s. With the current precipitation forecast an outflow increase to 850 m3/s is planned for Tuesday June 18th and an additional increase to 900 m3/s is tentatively scheduled for Thursday June 20th.

Each of these flow changes will cause a levels along the Winnipeg River to increase by approximately 15 cm, (6 in) directly downstream of the Norman Dam, by 10 cm (4 in) above the Dalles, and by 10 cm (4 in) at Minaki.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.97 m (1167.9 ft), a 45th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 15 cm (6 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 12 to 20 cm (5 to 8 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 300 m3/s with no changes currently scheduled.

2024.06.14 Conditions Update and Level Forecast

Over the past week, the Winnipeg River basin received some pockets of moderate rainfall which contributed to lake inflows and delayed their decline. As a result, inflows to Lac Seul and Lake of the Woods remain in the high normal range for this time of year. Forecasts are indicating a drier period through the weekend, followed by a large rainfall system expected to move through the basin early next week. Rainfall amounts associated with this system are currently uncertain, however outflow increases at Lake of the Woods next week are possible if the precipitation in the forecast materializes.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.12 m (1060.1 ft) , a 60th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 6 cm (2.5 in) over the last week and is expected to increase by 3 to 8 cm (1 to 3 in) over the next week, depending on precipitation amounts and upstream flow changes. The current outflow of Lake of the Woods is 800 m3/s. With the current precipitation forecast an outflow increase to 850 m3/s is tentatively scheduled for Tuesday June 18th.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.91 m (1167.68 ft), a 45th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 17 cm (7 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 8 to 14 cm (3 to 5.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 300 m3/s with no additional outflow increases currently planned.

If you have any questions, comments or observations, please contact the Secretariat at secretariat@lwcb.ca or by calling 1-800-661-5922. This Noticeboard will be updated regularly as conditions develop.

For more information on Namakan and Rainy Lakes, visit the Water Level Notices page of the International Rainy-Lake of the Woods Watershed Board.

2024.06.06 Conditions Update and Level Forecast

Over the past week the Winnipeg River basin received above normal rainfall and this has caused inflows to both Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul to remain stable and in the high-normal range for this time of year. Lake of the Woods inflow is around 1,700 m3/s (80th percentile) and Lac Seul inflow is around 1,100 m3/s (70th percentile). These inflows have resulted in the continued rise of lake levels, but lake levels and outflows are still within the normal range on both Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul. At Lac Seul, the lake continues to refill with outflows remaining in the normal range.

At Lake of the Woods the current lake level of 323.06 m (1059.91 ft) is 6 cm ( 2 in) above the normal summer level of 323.0 m (1059.7 ft) and 1.06 m (3.47 ft) below the peak level in 2022 of 324.12 m (1063.39 ft). Lake of the Woods outflow is currently 800 m3/s. Lake levels and outflows are being managed in accordance with the regulation strategy adopted in March, taking all interests into consideration both upstream on the lake and downstream on the Winnipeg River. In particular, this consideration from the high inflow scenario applies at this time:

“Avoid outflow above 800 to 900 m³/s if the lake level (or projected level) will remain
below 323.20 m (1060.4 ft) in June. A flow of 900 m³/s on the Winnipeg River would
cause the level below the Norman Dam to rise 1.4 m (4.6 ft) above normal, whereas a
lake level of 323.2 m (1060.4 ft) is only 15 cm (6 in) above median at the end of June.”

Weather forecasts and inflow predictions indicate that the level of Lake of the Woods is not expected to increase above 323.2 m (1060.4 ft) within the next 10 days. Therefore, no additional outflow increases are scheduled at this time. The Secretariat will continue to monitor conditions in the event that inflows remain higher than forecasted.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.06 m (1059.91 ft) , a 60th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 13 cm (5 in) over the last week and is expected to increase by 6 to 9 cm (2 to 3.5 in) over the next week, depending on precipitation amounts and upstream flow changes. The current outflow of Lake of the Woods is 800 m3/s. With inflows forecasted to decline with dry weather, no outflow changes are currently planned.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.72 m (1167.1 ft), a 45th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 17 cm (7 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 12 to 15 cm (5 to 6 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 300 m3/s with no additional outflow increases currently planned.

If you have any questions, comments or observations, please contact the Secretariat at secretariat@lwcb.ca or by calling 1-800-661-5922. This Noticeboard will be updated regularly as conditions develop.

For more information on Namakan and Rainy Lakes, visit the Water Level Notices page of the International Rainy-Lake of the Woods Watershed Board.