Conditions in the Winnipeg River drainage basin over the last month have been abnormally dry and inflows to the Lake of the Woods, Lake St. Joseph and Lac Seul are all at or less than the 5th percentile. Precipitation for the month of June across the basin has been approximately half of the normal amount, and even less around Lac Seul and Lake St. Joseph (see map below). The North American Drought Monitor is also indicating abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions for this area.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.86 m (1059.3 ft), a 20^th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 6 cm (2 in) over the past week and is expected to continue to decrease by approximately another 6 cm over the next week.

In response to these low inflows and to maintain storage over the summer, further outflow reductions are scheduled for next week (similar to this week). Lake of the Woods outflow will be reduced as follows:

• 350 m³/s on Monday, July 17
• 300 m³/s on Wednesday, July 19
• 250 m³/s on Friday, July 21

Each of these outflow reductions will cause the Winnipeg River water level to drop by approximately:

• 11 cm (4 in) below the Norman Dam
• 5 cm (2 in) above the Dalles
• no change at Minaki

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.96 m (1167.8 ft), a 25^th percentile level for this time of year. The lake level increased by 3 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by approximately 3 to 5 cm (1 to 2 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 100 m³/s. There will be a temporary outage at Ear Falls and Manitou Falls generating stations, between July 15 to 17, which will result in a temporary decrease in outflows during this time. At least 50 m³/s outflow will be maintained during this outage, and outflows will be back to the authorized outflow of 100 m³/s on July 17.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.93 m (1059.5 ft), a 25^th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 6 cm (2 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease by 2 to 5 cm (1 to 2 in) over the next week. In response to low inflows and to maintain storage over the summer, a series of outflow reductions is scheduled for next week. Lake of the Woods outflow will be reduced as follows:

• 500 m³/s on Monday, July 10
• 450 m³/s on Wednesday, July 12
• 400 m³/s on Friday, July 14

These outflow reductions are larger than over the last month and as such the level of the Winnipeg River is expected to drop by several inches next week. By dropping flows on the Winnipeg River faster now, storage will be build up on the lake to help provide normal flows on the river for a longer period of time in the case of extended dry conditions. The level of the Winnipeg River will decrease with each outflow reduction by approximately:

• 13 cm (5 in) below the Norman Dam
• 7 cm (3 in) above the Dalles
• no change at Minaki

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.94 m (1167.8 ft), a 25^th percentile level for this time of year. The lake level increased by 3 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by approximately 2 to 6 cm (1 to 2 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 100 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

Over the last week, weather conditions in the Winnipeg River basin have shifted to scattered isolated thunderstorms typical of this time of year. Although these storms produce local high rainfall amounts, the overall state of the basin remains dry and these scattered pulses of precipitation are not affecting tributary flows and lake inflows which remain low and in decline.

To hedge against this dry weather pattern, outflow decreases from Lake of the Woods will be directed to match outflow to inflow, allowing the lake level to stabilize. This will build storage on the lake, ensuring preferred levels and flows can be maintained for the summer months on both Lake of the Woods and the Winnipeg River.

Lake of the Woods authorized outflow will decrease to 550 m³/s on Thursday, July 6. The level of the Winnipeg River is expected to decrease by approximately 14 cm (5.5 in) below the Norman Dam, 8 cm (3 in) above the Dalles and no level impacts are expected at Minaki.

An additional two or three 50 m³/s outflow decreases are tentatively scheduled for the week of July 10 with details to be posted in the next week.

Despite some rain over the last week, inflows continue to remain below normal, and well below the current outflow. As a result, the level of Lake of the Woods will continue to drop over the next few weeks. To maintain preferred summer levels on Lake of the Woods, an outflow decrease is scheduled tomorrow with another planned later this week.

Lake of the Woods authorized outflow will decrease to 600 m³/s on Tuesday July 4. The level of the Winnipeg River is expected to decrease by approximately 14.3 cm (6 in) below the Norman Dam, 8.5 cm (3 in) above the Dalles and no level impacts are expected at Minaki.

Additional outflow decreases will be posted in the next few days.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.99 m (1059.7 ft), a 45^th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 3.1 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to continue to drop by 5-6 cm (2-2.5 in) over the next week, but this is dependent on precipitation and potential outflow decreases. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 650 m³/s.

With recent and planned flow reductions from Rainy Lake, Lake of the Woods outflow will likely need to be reduced to maintain preferred summer water levels. Since inflows are currently very dependent on precipitation, the weather forecasts and precipitation data are being closely monitored.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.91 m (1167.7 ft), a 25^th percentile level for this time of year. The lake level increased by 5.3 cm (2 in) over the past week and is expected to continue rising by approximately 5-7 cm (2-3 in) over the next week, depending on precipitation. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 100 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

With dry conditions, local inflows rapidly decreasing, and expected flow reductions from Namakan and Rainy Lakes, the level of Lake of the Woods will continue to drop over the next few weeks. To maintain preferred summer levels on Lake of the Woods while minimizing impacts to levels on the Winnipeg River, an outflow decrease is scheduled tomorrow with more planned at the end of this week and through next week.

Lake of the Woods authorized outflow will decrease to 650 m³/s on Wednesday, June 28. The level of the Winnipeg River is expected to decrease by approximately 15 cm (6 in) below the Norman Dam, 9 cm (3.5 in) above the Dalles and no level impacts are expected at Minaki.

Additional outflow decreases will be posted in the next few days.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.02 m (1059.8 ft), a 55^th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 3 cm (1 in) over the past week and could increase by 2 cm (1 in) or decrease by 5 cm (2 in) over the next week depending on the rainfall forecasted for Saturday and Sunday. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 700 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.85 m (1167.5 ft), a 35^th percentile level for this time of year. The lake level increased by 8 cm (3 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 10 to 17 cm (4 to 7 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 100 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

Summer/Fall Strategy

On June 15, the LWCB held its spring Regulation Meeting, attended by specific interest groups and resource agencies, and adopted its Summer/Fall Regulation Strategy. The strategy outlines regulation targets for various inflow conditions for the period of June to the end of October. The Secretariat provided a review of how inflows developed this spring and the refill status of the major lakes. Recent dry conditions and outlooks for summer precipitation and temperature were also reviewed.

For Lake of the Woods, the strategy targets a return to slightly lower summer lake levels given naturally receding inflows due to the dry conditions and an ongoing desire for lower levels to assist with property repairs following the 2022 flood.

For Lac Seul, with drought conditions developing this spring, the strategy is focused on lake refill to the preferred summer levels. The strategy also specifies avoiding outflow reductions unless necessary, to ensure adequate water downstream on the English River.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.05 m (1059.9 ft), a 55^th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 1.5 cm (0.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease by 4 to 6 cm (1.5 to 2 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods outflow will decrease gradually over the next few weeks in response to declining inflows. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is scheduled to decrease to:

• 750 m³/s on Friday, June 15
• 725 m³/s on Tuesday, June 20
• 700 m³/s on Friday, June 23

With each of these outflow reductions, the level of the Winnipeg River is expected to decrease. River levels will drop with each outflow reduction by approximately:

• 7 cm (2.5 in) below the Norman Dam
• 5 cm (2 in) above the Dalles
• 2 to 6 cm (0.5 to 2 in) at Minaki

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.77 m (1167.2 ft), a 35^th percentile level for this time of year. The lake level increased by 8 cm (3 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by approximately 4 to 6 cm (1.5 to 2 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 100 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

With Namakan and Rainy Lakes returning to their respective Rule Curves, large outflow decreases from Rainy Lake have started and as a result inflow to Lake of the Woods will begin dropping significantly over the next two weeks. To maintain preferred summer levels on Lake of the Woods while minimizing impacts to levels on the Winnipeg River, gradual outflow decreases are scheduled to start tomorrow.

Lake of the Woods authorized outflow will decrease to 775 m³/s on Tuesday, June 13. The level of the Winnipeg River is expected to decrease by approximately 11 cm (4 in) below the Norman Dam, 7 cm (3 in) above the Dalles and 7 cm (3 in) at Minaki.

Additional outflow decreases will be posted in the next few days.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.07 m (1059.9 ft), a 60^th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 4 cm (1.5 in) over the past week and is expected to remain stable over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 800 m³/s.

With Namakan and Rainy Lakes returning to their respective Rule Curves, large outflow decreases from Rainy Lake are expected next week. As a result, Lake of the Woods outflow will therefore need to be gradually reduced to maintain preferred summer levels as inflow to the lake declines. A schedule of outflow reductions will be provided in advance.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.69 m (1167.0 ft), a 45^th percentile level for this time of year. The lake level increased by 14 cm (5.5 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by approximately 12 cm (4.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 100 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

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Come learn about the Winnipeg River drainage basin at the Lake of the Woods Control Board Public Open House on June 14, 2023 in Kenora.