A low pressure system is expected to travel across the Winnipeg River basin late this evening and into tomorrow. Because temperatures are low, precipitation is expected to fall as snow, with accumulation in the 10 to 20 cm (4 to 8 in) range. There is a chance for freezing rain along the border with Minnesota.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.41 m (1057.8 ft), a 40th percentile level, in the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level remained stable over the last week and, with the snow and freezing rain coming tomorrow, is expected to increase by 1 to 4 cm (0.5 to 1.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 250 m3/s, with no changes scheduled.
The current level of Lac Seul is 354.72 m (1163.8 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The lake level declined by 7 cm (2.5 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 3 to 5 cm (1 to 2 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow will decrease to 250 m3/s today, March 27th. Due to scheduled maintenance at the Ear Falls dam, Lac Seul outflow will temporarily decrease to 200 m3/s on Monday, March 31st and Tuesday, April 1st.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.41 m (1057.8 ft), a 35th percentile level, in the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level remained stable over the last week and is expected to increase by up to 2 cm (1 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 250 m3/s, with no changes scheduled.
The current level of Lac Seul is 354.78 m (1164.0 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The lake level declined by 6 cm (2.5 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 6 to 7 cm (2.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 300 m3/s, with no changes scheduled.
Spring Regulation Strategy
On March 19, the LWCB held its spring Regulation Meeting in Kenora and adopted its Spring Regulation Strategy. The strategy outlines regulation targets for various inflow conditions for the period of March to the end of June, and was developed considering basin conditions, hydrological and meteorological forecasts and the input from various interests concerned with basin management.
Winter 2024-2025 was characterized by differences in snowpack and winter severity between the southern and northern portions of the basin, which is reflected in the lake level targets and outlooks for Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul. There is uncertainty in longterm precipitation forecasts, which indicate equal chances of above or below normal precipitation in early spring, requiring close monitoring of conditions.
Measured Snow Depth (cm) on March 15, 2025
Lake of the Woods
Winter baseflows in tributaries of the Lake of the Woods and Rainy-Namakan basins were low due to underlying drought conditions. Snowpack was also below average around Lake of the Woods and along the Rainy River. These factors point towards the potential for average to below normal spring inflow driven by baseflow and snow melt. While balancing the risk of above normal spring rainfall, the regulation strategy targets a normal lake level for the end of March. Conditions will be monitored throughout the spring so that outflow can be adjusted to ensure refill and rising lake levels, while considering downstream impacts.
Lac Seul
In the English River basin, snowpack was close to normal and tributary baseflows were also in the normal range. These factors point towards spring inflows that will be sufficient to support refill if normal spring precipitation develops. The regulation strategy targets a normal and slightly broader range of lake levels for mid-April, taking into consideration uncertainty in longterm precipitation forecasts. Adjustments to outflow will be made to first target a level that is suitable for the start of the refill period and then to ensure gradual refill, while considering downstream impacts.
Over the last week, many parts of the basin experienced a first taste of spring when warm daytime temperatures coupled with sunny days. This weekend, a system is forecast to bring rain to the basin, further melting the snowpack. Although there is still some uncertainty as to how much runoff the rain will generate, inflow to the major lakes is expected to increase over the next week. Depending on how quickly flows increase on the Rainy River, gradual outflow increases at Lake of the Woods may be required next week. Notice of these changes will be provided as soon as possible.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.42 m (1057.8 ft), a 25th percentile level, in the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 1.5 cm (0.5 in) over the last week and is expected to increase by 2.5 to 6 cm (1 to 2.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 250 m3/s, with no changes scheduled.
The current level of Lac Seul is 354.85 m (1164.2 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The lake level declined by 7 cm (2.5 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 2.5 to 6 cm (1 to 2.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 300 m3/s, with no changes scheduled.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.44 m (1057.85 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 2 cm (1 in) over the last week and is expected to decline by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 250 m3/s, with no changes scheduled.
On March 1st, the level of Lac Seul was 354.97 m (1164.6 ft) within the target range of the Regulation Strategy adopted last October. The current level of Lac Seul is 354.93 m (1164.4 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The lake level declined by 6 cm (2.5 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 5 to 6 cm (2 to 2.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 300 m3/s, with no changes scheduled.
Over the last week, southern portions of the Winnipeg River basin received some rain and daytime temperatures were above freezing. This caused the snowpack to compact and become wetter. Conditions are however expected to change with an Alberta clipper forecast to cross the basin this evening and into Friday. Environment Canada has issued snowfall warnings, predicting rapid snow accumulation in the range of 15 to 25 cm (6 to 10 in). The return of colder temperatures is also forecast for this weekend.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.45 m (1057.9 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 1.5 cm (1 in) over the last week and is expected to change little over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow remains 250 m3/s, with no changes scheduled.
The current level of Lac Seul is 354.94 m (1164.6 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The lake level declined by 7.5 cm (3 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 5.5 cm to 7 cm (2 to 2.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 300 m3/s, with no changes scheduled.
The current level of Lac Seul is 355.02 m (1164.7 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The lake level declined by 8 cm (3 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 7 to 9 cm (2.5 to 3.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow was reduced to 300 m3/s today, February 25th. Outflow is expected to continue gradually declining as the lake level drops.
The extremely cold temperatures impacting the Winnipeg River basin are expected to let up in the next couple of days. Very little snow fell over the last week. A precipitation system coupled with warmer temperatures is forecast to bring snow and rain showers to the southern half of the basin over the weekend. Snowpack conditions remain close to or slightly below normal for this time of year.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.47 m (1058.0 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 1 cm (0.4 in) over the last week and is expected to remain stable over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 250 m3/s, with no changes scheduled.
The current level of Lac Seul is 355.07 m (1164.9 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The lake level declined by 9 cm (3.5 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 7 to 9 cm (2.5 to 3.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 360 m3/s, and continues to gradually decline with the falling lake level. No outflow changes are scheduled.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.48 m (1058 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level changed little over the last week and is expected to decline less than 1 cm (0.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 250 m3/s, with no changes scheduled.
The current level of Lac Seul is 355.16 m (1165.22 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The lake level declined by 8 cm (3 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 6 to 8 cm (2 to 3 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow has been adjusted to 360 m3/s, it will gradually decline with the falling lake level. No outflow changes are scheduled.
Note: The LWCB updated its reference percentile set on February 4th, 2025. This does not impact observed lake levels, but may impact their percentile rank.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.49 m (1058.01 ft), a 15th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level changed little over the last week and is expected to remain stable over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 250 m3/s, with no changes scheduled.
The current level of Lac Seul is 355.24 m (1165.47 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The lake level declined by 8 cm (3 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 8 to 9 cm (3 to 3.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow has been adjusted to 360 m3/s as it gradually declines with the falling lake level. No outflow changes are scheduled.
Note: The LWCB updated its reference percentile set on February 4th, 2025. This does not impact observed lake levels, but may impact their percentile rank.
The Lake of the Woods Control Board updates its percentile set once every 5 years. As of today, all data products will reference new percentiles computed for the period of 1991 to 2020. Maximum and minimum records have also been updated to extend to 2023 and will now be updated annually.
Percentile sets for all stations, and more information on percentiles, are available on our Percentile Data Page.
