Secretariat

Although the Winnipeg River Basin has received some significant precipitation early last week rainfall amounts have decreased. With temperatures dropping we’ve also seen precipitation start to fall as snow.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.68 m (1058.66 ft), a 30^th percentile level within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level remained stable over the last week and is expected to decrease 1 to 3 cm (<0.5 to 1 in). Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 300 m³/s. With temperatures dropping and outflow reductions from upstream Rainy Lake, we have seen inflows to Lake of the Woods begin to decrease. As such, no outflow increases are planned for Lake of the Woods.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.93 m (1167.7 ft), a 20^th percentile level for this time of year. The lake level decreased 5 cm (2 in) and is expected to decrease by 5 cm to 6 cm (2 to 2.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 350 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

Over the past week the Winnipeg River Basin has received significant amounts of rainfall. This precipitation has helped increase inflows to the major lakes which are back in the normal range for this time of year. With higher inflows, outflows will continue to be increased to draw down the lakes over the winter and meet flow requirements along the Winnipeg River.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.68 m (1058.66 ft), a 30^th percentile level within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased 2 cm (1 in) over the last week and is expected to remain relatively stable increasing or decreasing by 1 cm (<0.5 in) depending on precipitation. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 225 m³/s. Additional outflow increases are planned to drawdown the lake over the winter period and meet flow requirements on the Winnipeg River. Lake of the Woods outflow will increase as follows:

• 250 m³/s Saturday November 23^rd
• 275 m³/s Monday November 25^th
• 300 m³/s Wednesday November 27^th

Each of these outflow increases will cause levels along the Winnipeg River to increase as follows:

• 5 cm (1.5 in) directly downstream of the Norman Dam
• 2 cm (1 in) above the Dalles
• The water level at Minaki will not be impacted by these outflow changes.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.98 m (1167.91 ft), a 20^th percentile level for this time of year. The lake level decreased 2 cm (1 in) and is expected to decrease by 4 cm to 5 cm (1.5 to 2 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 300 m³/s with a planned increase to 325 m³/s Thursday November 21^st and a tentative increase to 350 m³/s Wednesday November 27^th.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.65 m (1058.6 ft), a 25^th percentile level within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level remained stable over the last week and is expected to remain relatively stable increasing up to 3 cm (1 in) or decreasing 1 cm (<0.5 in). Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 150 m³/s. With Winter approaching, outflow increases are planned to meet minimum flow requirements on the Winnipeg River. Lake of the Woods outflow will increase as follows:

• 175 m³/s Friday November 15^th
• 200 m³/s Tuesday November 19^th
• 225 m³/s Thursday November 21^th

Each of these outflow increases will cause levels along the Winnipeg River to increase as follows:

• 4 cm (1.5 in) directly downstream of the Norman Dam
• 1 cm (<0.5 in) above the Dalles
• The water level at Minaki will not be impacted by these outflow changes.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.01 m (1168.01 ft), a 20^th percentile level for this time of year. The lake level decreased 3 cm (1 in) and is expected to decrease by 1 cm to 4 cm (<0.5 to 1.5 in) over the next week, depending on rainfall. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 300 m³/s with no changes currently scheduled.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.65 m (1058.6 ft), a 20^th percentile level just below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level remained stable over the last week and is expected to change little over the next week, with some rainfall in the forecast. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 150 m³/s with no outflow changes scheduled.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.04 m (1168.11 ft), a 20^th percentile level for this time of year. The lake level decreased 5 cm (2 in) and is expected to remain stable or decrease by approximately 4 cm (1.5 in) over the next week, depending on rainfall. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 300 m³/s with no changes currently scheduled.

Winter Regulation Strategy

On October 30, the Lake of the Woods Control Board (LWCB) held its fall Regulation Meeting in Kenora, attended by specific interest groups and resource agencies, and adopted its Regulation Strategy. The strategy outlines regulation targets for various inflow conditions for the period of November 2024 to March 2025. The Secretariat provided a review of current dry conditions and how outflows and levels on the major lakes had declined over the late summer and fall. Climate forecasts indicate La Nina conditions may occur over the winter potentially leading to colder temperatures and more snowfall. At the meeting, these outlooks were reviewed and considered when setting spring lake level targets.

With some uncertainty in the forecasted winter inflow to Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul, the strategy focuses on providing minimum flows along the English and Winnipeg Rives for hydropower production and plant heating, monitoring the drawdown of both lakes and adjusting spring target levels as winter progresses.

For Lake of the Woods, considering preferences heard from various interests, the strategy targets the low end of the spring level target range, to mitigate flood risk. For Lac Seul, the strategy recommends a spring level target that is lower than normal, but similar to last year’s target, to help supply core winter flows on the English and Winnipeg Rivers.

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The LWCB Basin Data page will not be updated on Monday, November 11^th (Remembrance Day, Canada). Daily data updates and publication will resume on Tuesday, November 12^th.

Portions of the basin along the international border received some rainfall over the last 24 hours. Forecasts indicate that generally dry conditions will persist over the next few days, with a chance of additional precipitation early next week. This rain will help maintain flows and lake levels as cooler temperatures set in.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.65 m (1058.6 ft), a 20^th percentile level, just below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased 2 cm (0.5 in) over the last week and is expected to remain stable or decrease by 2.5 cm (1 in) over the next week. Authorized outflow is 150 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.09 m (1168.3 ft), a 25^th percentile level, within the low-normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 5 cm (2 in) over the last week and is expected to remain stable or decrease by 3 cm (1 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 300 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

Happy Halloween!

Rainfall over the past few days has provided some relief to dry conditions but flows across the basin remain low. The forecast remains generally dry with some potential for a larger rainfall event on October 30^th and 31^st. There is some uncertainty around this rainfall event but it is not expected to increase inflows significantly.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.67 m (1058.63 ft), a 20^th percentile level, just below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased 2 cm (1 in) over the last week and is expected to remain stable or decrease by 1 cm (<0.5 in). Authorized outflow is 150 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.15 m (1168.47 ft), a 25^th percentile level, within the low-normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 5 cm (2 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease 3 to 5 cm (1 to 2 in). Lac Seul authorized outflow 300 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

Moderate rainfall earlier this week provided some relief to dry conditions but flows across the basin remain low. The forecast remains generally dry with the exception of a rainfall event October 22^nd and 23^rd. Weekly totals from the forecast could reach up to 75 mm around Lac Seul and 20-40 mm around Lake of the Woods. This is expected to temporarily increase inflows before dry conditions return.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.69 m (1058.69 ft), a 25^th percentile level, in the low-normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased 1 cm (<0.5 in) over the last week and is expected to remain stable or decrease by 1 cm (<0.5 in). Authorized outflow is 150 m³/s with no changes scheduled.

There are full station outages planned next week from October 15^th to 18^th at the Norman Dam and Kenora Powerhouse, again for work being completed by the dam operators. These outages will cause temporary level fluctuations along the Winnipeg River. Because Lake of the Woods outflow is lower than it was back in September when similar outages were conducted, the expected change in Winnipeg River levels is less, as follows:

Directly downstream of the Norman Dam:

• On October 17^th a decrease of up to 30 cm (12 in) followed by a similar increase after the outage is completed that day. Levels are expected to drop between 7:00 am and 7:00 pm daily.

Directly downstream of the Kenora Powerhouse:

• On October 17^th an increase of 12 cm (5 in) followed by a similar decrease after the outage is completed that day.
• On October 18^th a decrease of 5 cm (2 in) followed by a similar increase after the outage is completed that day.

Water levels further downstream at the Dalles are expected to fluctuate very little (not noticeable) and water levels at Minaki will not be affected by these outages.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.20 m (1168.64 ft), a 35^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 5 cm (2 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease 1 to 3 cm (>0.5 to 1 in). Lac Seul authorized outflow is will decrease to 300 m³/s Thursday October 17^th.

Dry weather has continued over the past week with the brief rainfall providing minor relief. The forecast indicates minimal rainfall over the week and as such inflows will continue to be low.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.70 m (1058.7 ft), a 20^th percentile level, in the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased 4 cm (2 in) over the last week and is expected to remain stable or decrease by 2 cm (1 in). To continue to balance outflows and inflows, Lake of the Woods outflow will be reduced to 150 m³/s Friday October 11^th.

As a result, levels along the Winnipeg River will decrease as follows:

• 3 cm (1 in) below the Norman Dam
• 1 cm (less than 0.5 in) below the Dalles
• The water level at Minaki will not be impacted by this outflow reduction.

There are full station outages planned next week from October 15^th to 18^th at the Norman Dam and Kenora Powerhouse, again for work being completed by the dam operators. These outages will cause temporary level fluctuations along the Winnipeg River. Because Lake of the Woods outflow is lower than it was back in September when similar outages were conducted, the expected change in Winnipeg River levels is less, as follows:

Directly downstream of the Norman Dam:

• From October 15^th to 17^th a daily decrease of up to 30 cm (12 in) followed by a similar increase after the outage is completed that day. Levels are expected to drop between 7:00 am and 7:00 pm daily.

Directly downstream of the Kenora Powerhouse:

• From October 15^th to 17^th a daily increase of 12 cm (5 in) followed by a similar decrease after the outage is completed that day.
• On October 18^th a decrease of 5 cm (2 in) followed by a similar increase after the outage is completed that day.

Water levels further downstream at the Dalles are expected to fluctuate very little (not noticeable) and water levels at Minaki will not be affected by these outages.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.26 m (1168.83 ft), a 40^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 5 cm (2 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease 5 to 6 cm (2 to 2.5 in). Lac Seul authorized outflow is 350 m³/s, but has dropped slightly because of declining lake levels. There will be no outflow adjustments due to the dry conditions.

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The LWCB Basin Data page will not be updated on Monday, October 14^th (Thanksgiving, Canada). Daily data updates and publication will resume on Tuesday, October 15^th.

The Lake of the Woods Control Board is hosting a public open house in Winnipeg on October 30^th from 6:00 to 8:00 pm at the Hampton Inn (Airport/Polo Park). See details below.

Board members and Secretariat staff will be available to review and discuss water level and flow conditions across the Winnipeg River basin, as well as answer any questions.

Dry weather has persisted over the past week and continues through the forecast period with the exception of potential rainfall on October 6^th. These dry conditions along with upstream flow reductions from Rainy Lake are leading to continually decreasing inflows to Lake of the Woods. To balance outflows with inflows additional outflow reductions will be required.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.74 m (1058.85 ft), a 30^th percentile level, in the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased 5 cm (2 in) over the last week and is expected to remain stable or decrease by 2 cm (1 in). To continue to balance outflows and inflows, 3 outflow reductions are planned:

• 225 m³/s Friday October 4^th
• 200 m³/s Monday October 7^th
• 175 m³/s Wednesday October 9^th

These outflow changes will cause levels along the Winnipeg River to decrease as follows:

• 5 cm (2 in) below the Norman Dam October 4^th and 7^th, and 4 cm (1.5 in) October 9^th
• 2 cm (1 in) below the Dalles October 4^th and 7^th, and 1 cm (<0.5 in) October 9^th
• The water level at Minaki will not be impacted by this outflow reduction.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.31 m (1168.99 ft), a 45^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 6 cm (2.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease 5 to 6 cm (2 to 2.5 in). Lac Seul authorized outflow is 350 m³/s with no changes scheduled.