January 2025

Conditions in the Winnipeg River basin remain drier than normal, although some snowfall is expected over the next week. Maps of modelled snow water equivalent (SWE), the amount of water in the snow, indicate that there are approximately 40 to 60 mm (1.5 to 2.5 in) of SWE in the snowpack . This is close to or slightly below normal, with measurements of SWE taken by Ontario Power Generation on January 15^th coming in at 66% to 112% of normal.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.50 m (1058.07 ft), a 20^th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 3 cm (1 in) over the last week and with the scheduled outflow increases, is expected to remain stable over the next week.

With inflow to Lake of the Woods very low for this time of year, outflow reductions are scheduled next week to help slow the rate of level decline on the lake. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow will be reduced to 275 m³/s, on Monday, January 27^th and to 250 m³/s on Thursday, January 30^th. These outflow reductions will cause levels on the Winnipeg River to decline by:

• 10 cm (4 in) below the Norman Dam
• 4 cm (1.5 in) at the Dalles
• no change at Minaki

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.41 m (1166.02 ft), a 20^th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The lake level declined by 8 cm (3 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 6.5 cm to 8 cm (2.5 to 3 in) over the next week. Lac Seul outflow is 380 m³/s, with no changes scheduled.

An Alberta clipper is expected to impact the basin on January 17^th. Snowfall amounts in the 5 to 15 cm (2 to 6 in) range are expected, with the highest accumulation north of the English River. Following the storm, temperatures are expected to drop. With levels on both lakes declining steadily, no outflow changes are planned this week.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.54 m (1058.18 ft), a 20^th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 2.2 cm (1 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 1.5 to 2 cm ( 0.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow remains 300 m³/s, with no changes scheduled.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.49 m (1166.30 ft), a 20^th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The lake level declined by 7 cm (2.5 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 6.5 cm to 7.5 cm (2.5 to 3 in) over the next week. A mechanical issue at the Ear Falls Dam impacted outflow early in the week. On Wednesday, January 15^th, Lac Seul outflow was restored to the authorized 380 m³/s, and no additional flow changes are scheduled.

Over the last few weeks, the Winnipeg River basin experienced a swing in conditions, with a warm-up accompanied by moderate amounts of precipitation at the end of December, followed by much drier and colder conditions in the first week of January. Forecasts indicate a return to seasonal temperatures and a chance for flurries over the next week. Snow depth measurements across the basin indicate slightly below normal snow accumulation for this time of year.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.56 m (1058.25 ft), a 20^th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 2.5 cm (1 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 1.5 to 2.5 cm ( 0.5 to 1 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow remains at 300 m³/s, with no changes scheduled.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.56 m (1166.53 ft), a 20^th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The lake level declined by 7.5 cm (3 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 6 cm to 7.5 cm (2.5 to 3 in) over the next week. Due to the declining lake level providing less head at the Ear Falls dam, Lac Seul outflow has dropped to 368 m³/s. To maintain river flows and consistent lake level decline, an outflow increase to 380 m³/s is scheduled for Wednesday, January 15^th.