The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.09 m (1063.3 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined slightly, by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the past week. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open and no additional actions can be taken to limit lake level rise.
Lake of the Woods level reached a peak within the last week and levels are starting to decline slowly. The rate of decline should increase over the next week with normal rainfall forecasted and outflow from Rainy Lake dropping substantially. The level of Lake of the Woods is expected to decline by 3 to 5 cm over the next week.
These decreases in lake level will start to cause outflow from the lake to fall. This will result in the level of the Winnipeg River immediately below the Norma Dam, to drop by about 3 cm (2 in) over the next week. The level between Kenora and Minaki may drop by about 1-2 cm (1/2 in to 1 in) over the next week.
The current level of Lac Seul is 356.73 m (1170.4 ft), 80th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul is expected to fall by 4-7 cm (1-3 in) over the next 7 days. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 500 m³/s with no changes scheduled.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.10 m (1063.3 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level remained stable over the past week. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open and no additional actions can be taken to limit lake level rise.
Lake of the Woods level reached a peak within the last week and levels have remained stable since. Forecasts are indicating the possibility of higher than normal rainfall at the beginning of next week. This precipitation could see the lake level rise by up to 3 cm over the next week. If the precipitation is lower than expected, the lake may rise slightly, but then continue to decline up to 2 cm over the next week.
With these slight increases and decreases in lake level, the outflow from the lake will also slightly rise or fall. This will result in the level of the Winnipeg River between Kenora and Minaki to change by 1-2 cm (1/2 in to 1 in) over the next week, whether upward or downward depending on the rainfall. Higher level increases are possible in the event of larger local rainfall and inflows.
The current level of Lac Seul is 356.76 m (1170.5 ft), 85th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul is expected to fall by 4-7 cm (1-3 in) over the next 7 days. Lac Seul authorized outflow is scheduled to reduce to 500 m³/s on Monday, July 11.
The following forecast for the Winnipeg River in Manitoba was provided by Manitoba Hydro.
Conditions throughout the basin are improving as drier weather patterns dominated the month of June. Precipitation over the last month was below average for all areas of the basin. The map and table shown below indicate that total basin mean precipitation amounts for the month of June were very consistently between 50 and 100 mm. These amounts corresponded to a range of 11th to 32nd percentile, which is less than normal.
Basin Mean Precipitation June 1-30 / Source: Canadian Precipitation Analysis
June 1-30 Precipitation Totals for Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul
These much drier conditions have caused all tributary flows across the basin to drop considerably and return to high-normal or normal flow rates for this time of year. All major lake inflows have also peaked and have returned to a high-normal range for this time of year. Finally, with these drier conditions being sustained and allowing inflows to continue to trend downward, all major lakes have also peaked. Lac Seul and Namakan Lake levels are very close to their normal range for this time of year. Rainy Lake and Lake of the Woods levels remain exceptionally high, but significant reductions in level are expected for the months of July and August on these two lakes should dry conditions persist.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.10 m (1063.3 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level fell by 1 cm (1/2 in) over the past week. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open and no additional actions can be taken to limit lake level rise.
Upstream of Lake of the Woods, Namakan Lake has returned to normal summer levels while Rainy Lake remains high but is dropping sharply. Flows in tributaries in the Rainy River basin are low following generally drier weather in June. With outflow from Rainy Lake gradually dropping as the lake level falls and forecasted precipitation, the level of Lake of the Woods is expected to remain constant or decrease by 3 cm (0-1 in) over the next 7 days.
As the lake level begins to drop, the outflow from the lake will also slowly fall. This will result in the level of the Winnipeg River between Kenora and Minaki beginning to gradually fall over the next week by 1-2 cm (1/2 in to 1 in).
The current level of Lac Seul is 356.76 m (1170.5 ft), 85th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul is expected to fall by 5-9 cm (2-3 in) over the next 7 days. Lac Seul authorized outflow was reduced to 600 m³/s on Monday, July 4, with no other flow changes currently scheduled.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.10 m (1063.3 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level fell by 1 cm (1/2 in) over the past week. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open and no additional actions can be taken to limit lake level rise.
Upstream of Lake of the Woods, Namakan Lake has returned to normal summer levels while Rainy Lake remains high but is dropping sharply. Flows in tributaries in the Rainy River basin are low following generally drier weather in June. With outflow from Rainy Lake gradually dropping as the lake level falls, the level of Lake of the Woods is expected to fall by 3-5 cm (1-2 in) over the next 7 days.
As the lake level begins to drop, the outflow from the lake will also slowly fall. This will result in the level of the Winnipeg River between Kenora and Minaki beginning to gradually fall over the next week by 1-2 cm (1/2 in to 1 in).
The current level of Lac Seul is 356.77 m (1170.5 ft), 85th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul is expected to fall by 3-5 cm (1-2 in) over the next 7 days. Lac Seul authorized outflow was reduced to 600 m³/s on Monday, July 4, with no other flow changes currently scheduled.
Throughout the spring, the LWCB has received requests for forecasts of the peak level for Lake of the Woods and areas along the Winnipeg and English Rivers. Because the levels of these water bodies are influenced by the amount of rainfall across the large watershed, it was not possible to provide peak estimates well in advance, as accurate forecasts of this rainfall are not available weeks ahead of time.
Now that Lake of the Woods appears to have crested, many are wondering how long it will take for a return to normal water levels on the lake and along the Winnipeg River downstream (as the lake drops, so does the outflow into the Winnipeg River).
As was the case while the lake was rising, it is not possible to develop a forecast for the rate of drop in the level over the long term because the rainfall is unknown. However, using some assumptions about upstream water supply and the hydraulics of the system, the Secretariat has developed reasonable scenarios for how the lake level drop might develop in the coming weeks and months. Scenarios are not forecasts, they are possible outcomes if certain assumptions are correct. A wide range of water level outcomes are still possible for the remainder of the summer and fall.
Current basin conditions – Lake of the Woods and Winnipeg River Sub-basin
Following the record precipitation across the Rainy-Lake of the Woods watershed in April and again in May, the levels of rivers and lakes around the region reached extremely high levels, many setting new records by a large margin. While many of the rivers in the system have returned to normal water levels and flows, Rainy Lake remains very high and the dam there remains fully opened (this dam is not under the jurisdiction of the LWCB). The higher the level of Rainy Lake is, the higher the outflow when the dam is fully opened. This has meant a long period of extremely high flow down the Rainy River into Lake of the Woods, even as smaller lakes and rivers around Kenora are returning to normal levels.
The large lakes and rivers are serving as the main collectors and conveyors of the record spring runoff, much of which is still making its way downstream through the watershed. This is a natural process that will take many weeks.
The large lakes and rivers in the watershed remain high as they collect and drain the record spring runoff into downstream rivers and lakes
Outlook – Lake of the Woods and Winnipeg River
This flood can be thought of as a wave moving from upstream to downstream. The large lake furthest upstream, Lac la Croix, peaked first, followed by Namakan, then by Rainy Lake, and now Lake of the Woods. In each case, the drop after the peak is gradual but picks up pace. Lake of the Woods will follow the same trend, provided the weather remains favourable across the basin.
This process will take time, however, as Lake of the Woods is at the highest level since 1950. To return to the normal operating range, 323.39 m (1061.0 ft), will require a drop of 72 cm (2.4 ft) from today’s level (the top of the operating range is still 60 cm (2 ft) above the chart datum for Lake of the Woods).
Should a sustained period of hot and dry weather develop across the watershed, the level could reach the normal operating range in mid-August. A return to wet weather, however, would slow the drop in lake level. Extremely wet weather, as occurred September 2019, would see levels rising again, pushing back the return to the normal operating range into the late fall.
The dams in Kenora will remain fully opened until a level of at least 323.47 m (1061.25 ft) is reached. As the lake drops through the summer, the outflow will also fall, and the level of the Winnipeg River in Ontario will gradually drop. The level will drop more quickly once the lake is back within the normal operating range and larger outflow reductions can be made.
Current basin conditions – Lac Seul and English River Sub-basin
The English River basin also saw record April and May precipitation, leading to most river gauges across the region setting new records. These extreme flows peaked in most areas in June and have been dropping, but still remain high.
Unlike Lake of the Woods, Lac Seul is not constrained in its outflow and the lake level has not risen out of control. However, to maintain the lake level within the legislated limits in the face of record spring inflow, the LWCB directed very high outflows from Lac Seul. The combination of record flows from smaller tributaries and high flows out of Lac Seul resulted in record high water levels along the English River down to its confluence with the Winnipeg River near Boundary Falls, Ontario.
Outlook – Lac Seul and English River
Following generally drier weather in recent weeks, the LWCB has begun directing flow cuts at Lac Seul this week, with more planned next week. With favourable weather, the level of the main body of Lac Seul is expected to gradually fall over July while the level of Lost Lake at Hudson would fall to be closer to that of the main lake by late July.
Along the English River below Lac Seul, the combination of declining flows out of the natural tributaries and the flow cuts out of Lac Seul should see the river dropping more quickly through July. A drop of 60-90 cm (2-3 ft) in July is possible under dry or moderately dry weather conditions. However, a drop of 150 cm (5 ft) is needed to return to normal summer levels, and this is not likely before mid-August. A return to wet weather would slow the rate of decline, and extremely wet weather could see levels rising again this summer or fall.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.11 m (1063.3 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level rose by 2 cm (1 in) over the past week. The lake level has risen above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open and no additional actions can be taken to limit lake level rise.
Upstream of Lake of the Woods, the larger lakes, Namakan and Rainy, have peaked and are falling. Tributaries in the Rainy River basin have also been in decline following generally drier weather in June. This has resulted in Lake of the Woods inflow generally stabilizing recently. The peak lake level may be reached sometime this week or next with drier weather forecasted for the next 7 days. A return to normal Lake of the Woods summer levels is unlikely before mid-August regardless of precipitation.
As the lake level stabilizes, the outflow from the lake will also stop rising. This will result in the level of the Winnipeg River between Kenora and Minaki, as well as below Norman Dam, to remain constant and change very little over the next week.
The current level of Lac Seul is 356.80 m (1170.6 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. Lac Seul authorized outflow was reduced to 650 m³/s on Wednesday, June 29, and a second reduction to 600 m³/s is scheduled for Monday, July 4. The lake level has peaked and is expected to decline over the next week.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.11 m (1063.3 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level rose by 3 cm (1 in) over the past week. The lake level has risen above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open and no additional actions can be taken to limit lake level rise.
Upstream of Lake of the Woods, the larger lakes, Namakan and Rainy, have peaked and are falling. Tributaries in the Rainy River basin have also been in decline following generally drier weather in June. This has resulted in Lake of the Woods inflow generally stabilizing recently. The peak lake level may be reached sometime this week or next with drier weather forecasted for the next 7 days. A return to normal Lake of the Woods summer levels is unlikely before mid-August regardless of precipitation.
As the lake level stabilizes, the outflow from the lake will also stop rising. This will result in the level of the Winnipeg River between Kenora and Minaki, as well as below Norman Dam, to remain constant and change very little over the next week.
The current level of Lac Seul is 356.81 m (1170.6 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. Lac Seul authorized outflow was reduced to 700 m³/s on Monday, June 27. The lake level has peaked and is expected to decline over the next week.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.10 m (1063.3 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level rose by 3 cm (1 in) over the past week. The lake level has risen above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open and no additional actions can be taken to limit lake level rise.
Upstream of Lake of the Woods, the larger lakes, Namakan and Rainy, have peaked and are falling and tributaries in the Rainy River basin have also been in decline following generally drier weather in June. This has resulted in lake of the Woods inflow generally stabilizing recently. However, rainfall forecasted for the weekend would result in a brief spike in inflow due primarily to rainfall directly on the lake. With this rainfall, the level of Lake of the Woods is expected to rise by a total 5 to 11 cm (2 to 4 in) over the next 7 days, with most of the rise occurring over the weekend. The peak lake level will depend on rainfall in the following days and weeks. Drier weather could see a peak after this week but wet weather would delay this. A return to normal Lake of the Woods summer levels is unlikely before mid-August regardless of precipitation.
As the lake level rises slightly, the outflow from the lake will also gradually rise. This will result in the level of the Winnipeg River between Kenora and Minaki rising slightly, with any local precipitation adding temporarily to levels in this stretch of the river. The Winnipeg River level rise over the next 7 days below Norman Dam is expected to be 2-4 cm (1-2 in) with less rise further downstream from Kenora.
The current level of Lac Seul is 356.83 m (1170.7 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 800 m³/s. A reduction in outflow, to between 650 -700 m³/s, is planned for Monday, June 27, the rate dependent on rainfall received over the weekend.
The following forecast for the Winnipeg River in Manitoba was provided by Manitoba Hydro.
The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.09 m (1063.3 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level rose by 4 cm (1 in) over the past week. The lake level has risen above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open and no additional actions can be taken to limit lake level rise.
The level of Lake of the Woods is expected to rise slightly over the next 7 days with an increase of 2 to 5 cm (0.5 to 2 in). There continues to be short-lived precipitation events predicted in the forecast. This, in combination with the general trend of average precipitation so far in the month of June (see map below), is causing inflows to the lake to remain stable or decrease very slowly. If this weather pattern continues, it could temporarily delay reaching a peak and a return to normal summer levels will likely take many weeks. A return to more sustained wet weather could result in a second, higher peak.
As the lake level rises slightly, the outflow from the lake will also very gradually rise. This will result in the level of the Winnipeg River between Kenora and Minaki to rise slightly, with any local precipitation adding temporarily to levels in this stretch of the river. The Winnipeg River level rise over the next 7 days below Norman Dam is expected to be 3-5 cm (1-2 in) with less rise further downstream from Kenora, of up to 2.5 cm (1 in) at Minaki.
The current level of Lac Seul is 356.82 m (1170.7 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. Lac Seul inflow continues to decline steadily. Therefore the lake level remained stable over the past week and may be at it’s peak. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 800 m³/s with no changes currently scheduled.
Conditions throughout the basin have remained stable since the beginning of June, with short-lived, scattered precipitation events bringing average amounts of rainfall for most areas of the basin. Compared to average rainfall totals for the period of June 1st to today, most of the basin has received 60 to 100% of these totals, with few pockets of slightly higher or lower amounts. This return to normal weather conditions will help lake levels reach a peak and if sustained, will result in the steady decline of lake levels over the course of the summer.
Cumulative precipitation / Source: CaPAPercent of normal precipitation / Source: CaPA
