High winds overnight on November 2^nd caused a trip on the transmission line to Ear Falls. As a result, the dam lost power and there was no flow out of Lac Seul for a 6-hour window. The outage caused levels on the English River between Lac Seul and Manitou Falls to drop as the Manitou Falls generating station was still running to provide power to the area. Dam operators were able to restore Lac Seul outflow to 154 m³/s this morning.

To help increase water levels upstream of Manitou Falls, the Lac Seul outflow increase to 200 m³/s originally scheduled for November 5^th, will be rescheduled to today (November 3^rd) after power is restored. With the earlier outflow increase, the level of Lac Seul is expected to drop between 1 to 1.5 cm (0.5 in to 0.6 in) before the next Noticeboard update.

The basin received moderate precipitation early in the week and is expected to receive consistent, small, amounts of precipitation over the next week.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.75 m (1058.89 ft) a 30^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 2 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to increase 1 to 3 cm (0.5 to 1.2 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 150 m³/s. With the recent precipitation and increased inflows, Lake of the Woods outflow will increase to 200 m³/s on Wednesday November 5^th.

This outflow change will cause levels along the Winnipeg River to increase by 8 cm (3 in) below the Norman Dam, by 5.5 cm (2 in) above Kimberley Rapids and by 2 cm (1 in) at the Dalles. This outflow reduction will have no impact on levels at Minaki.

Notice: on Wednesday, November 5th, the Kenora Powerhouse will be shut down for regular station maintenance and Lake of the Woods authorized outflow will be fully transferred to the Norman Dam. Temporary water level fluctuations on the Winnipeg River are expected directly below the dams that day.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.26 m (1168.83 ft), a 45^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The lake level increased by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the last week and is expected to increase 1 to 4 cm (0.5 to 1.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 125 m³/s with a planned outflow increase to 200 m³/s on Wednesday November 5^th.

Although the basin received a moderate amount of precipitation over the past two weeks, forecasts indicate a return to dry conditions over the weekend and into next week.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.73 m (1058.78 ft) a 20^th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the past week and is expected to remain stable over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 150 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.25 m (1168.76 ft), a 35^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The lake level increased by 2 cm (0.5 in) over the last week and is expected to increase remain stable over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 125 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.71 m (1058.76 ft), slightly below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level was stable over the past week. With moderate rainfall expected around the lake, the level is expected to increase by 1 to 5 cm (0.5 to 2 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 150 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.23 m (1168.74 ft), a 40^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The lake level declined by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the last week and is expected to increase by 3to 4 cm (1.5 to 2 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 125 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.72 m (1058.78 ft) a 20^th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level remained stable over the past week and is expected to increase by 1 to 3 cm (0.5 to 1 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 150 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.24 m (1168.76 ft), a 35^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The lake level increased by 2 cm (0.5 in) over the last week and is expected to increase by 2 to 4 cm (0.5 to 2 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 125 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

A cold front is forecast to bring strong winds and rainfall to the Winnipeg River basin from Saturday, October 4^th through to Monday, October 6^th. There is the potential for moderate to significant rainfall to accompany this cold front, but it is still uncertain what areas will be most impacted. Conditions will be assessed next week and outflow increases from Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul may be required to maintain levels within the preferred ranges set in the Regulation Strategy.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.71 m (1058.75 ft) a 20^th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 1 to 4 cm (0.5 to 1.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 150 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.22 m (1168.7 ft), a 30^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The lake level remained stable over the last week and is expected to increase by 2.5 to 7.5 cm (1 to 3 in) over the next week depending on precipitation amounts received. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 125 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.73 m (1058.8 ft) a 25^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level remained stable over the past week and is expected to decrease by up to 2 cm (0.8 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 150 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.23 m (1168.7 ft), a 30^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The lake level remained stable over the last week and is expected to change little over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 125 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

Between the evening of September 11 and the early hours of September 12, areas in southern Manitoba—just west of Lake of the Woods—received over 100 mm (4 in) of rain within a few hours. The same storm system brought approximately 75 to 100 mm (3 to 4 in) of rainfall to Big Traverse, resulting in an immediate rise in the level of Lake of the Woods. This much-needed precipitation has helped sustain lake levels, despite ongoing drier-than-normal conditions across the basin.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.72 m (1058.8 ft) a 20^th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 3.0 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease by 1 to 3 cm (1 to 2 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 150 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.23 m (1168.7 ft), a 30^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The lake level remained stable over the last week and is expected to change little over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 125 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

Conditions across the Winnipeg River basin remain dry. High winds over the last week have made it difficult to accurately estimate average lake levels and inflows. The wind is also causing increased water loss through evaporation for the large lakes, and this loss is not being offset by rainfall. Lake of the Woods outflow reductions are therefore needed to slow the lake level decline.

How Wind Affects Water Levels on Large Lakes

We often think of a lake’s surface as flat and still—aside from waves. But on large lakes like Lake of the Woods, wind can cause noticeable changes in water levels from one location to another. This phenomenon is called wind setup. When sustained winds blow across the lake from one direction, they push water toward the far shore, raising the water level there while lowering it on the windward side. This creates a temporary tilt in the water surface. As wind speed, direction, and duration change, so does the distribution of water across the lake.

In early September, strong winds swept across Lake of the Woods, causing noticeable shifts in water levels at different locations around the lake. At first, winds blew from the west, pushing water away from the western shore—where the Cyclone gauge is located—and piling it up along the eastern shore, near the Hanson gauge. Later, as the wind shifted and strengthened from the north, the effects became more visible along the north and south shores. Water levels dropped at gauges on the north shore (Clearwater and Keewatin) and rose at gauges on the south shore (Warroad and Springsteel).

During windy periods, the average lake level computed from the measurements around the lake may change from day to day, even though the amount of water in the lake has changed little. And because lake inflow is computed using the change in lake level over time, this instability also causes inflow values to fluctuate from day to day.

The current level of Lake of the Woods 322.69 m (1058.7 ft) a 15^th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 3.5 cm (1.4 in) over the past week and is expected to remain stable or decrease by up to 1 cm (0.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow will decrease from 200 to 150 m³/s on Thursday, September 11^th.

This outflow change will cause levels along to Winnipeg River to decrease by 8 cm (3 in) below the Norman Dam, by 5 cm (2 in) above Kimberley Rapids and by 2 cm (0.8 in) at the Dalles. This outflow reduction will have no impact on levels at Minaki.

Notice: on Wednesday, September 17^th, the Kenora Powerhouse will be shut down for regular station maintenance and Lake of the Woods authorized outflow will be fully transferred to the Norman Dam. Temporary water level fluctuations on the Winnipeg River are expected directly below the dams that day.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.23 m (1168.7 ft), a 30^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The lake level remained stable over the last week and is expected to increase by 1 to 2 cm (0.5 to 1 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 125 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.72 m (1058.8 ft) a 15^th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 3.8 cm (1.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease by 1 to 2 cm (0.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 200 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.22 m (1168.7 ft), a 25^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The lake level increased 1.5 cm (0.6 in) over the last week and is expected to increase by 2.5 to 4 cm (1 to 1.6 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 125 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.