After a brief warm up and some mixed precipitation over the southern portions of the basin last week, temperatures have dropped and conditions are expected to be cold with minimal precipitation over the next week.
The current level of the Lake of the Woods is 322.42 m (1057.8 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased 1 cm (0.4 in) over the past week and is expected to remain stable or decrease by 1.6 cm (0.6 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 200 m3/s, with no changes scheduled at this time.
The current level of Lac Seul is 354.78 m (1163.95 ft), a 20th percentile level, below the normal range for this time of year. The lake level decreased 7 cm (2.8 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 3 to 5 cm (1 to 2 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow will be reduced to 215 m3/s, on Monday, March 16th to continue slowing the rate of level decline.
Spring Regulation Strategy
On March 5, the LWCB held its spring Regulation Meeting in Kenora where it adopted a new Regulation Strategy. The strategy outlines regulation targets for various inflow conditions for the period of March to June 2026, and was developed considering basin conditions, hydrological and meteorological forecasts and the input from representatives of First Nations, Specific Interest Groups, and Resource Advisors concerned with basin management.
Key conditions that were reviewed and discussed at the meeting were:
- Distribution of snowpack and its water content: Snow depths and water content are above normal in the eastern headwaters of the Rainy-Namakan basin and in the upper English River basin. Snowpack is below normal and has decreased over the last week along the Rainy River and south-west of Lake of the Woods.
- Potential for continued winter conditions: Forecasts indicated cold temperatures will persist over the next week and extended winter conditions are possible for the remainder of March. This can increase the risk of rain-on-snow events or early spring rainfall while the ground is still frozen.
Lac Seul
The level of Lac Seul is declining gradually toward the April 15th target. Based on snowpack conditions, spring inflows are expected to be sufficient to support refill under normal rainfall conditions. The Secretariat recommends regulation that enables refill of the lake, while balancing the risk of future high water and considering the effects of outflow changes during the spawning season.
Lake of the Woods
The level of Lake of the Woods is declining gradually toward the March 31st target. Current conditions indicate that local snowpack runoff to Lake of the Woods may be slightly below normal, with the potential for low or below‑normal inflows from Rainy Lake if normal or below‑normal precipitation occurs. The Secretariat recommends that regulation hedge against the risk for lower-than-normal spring inflow, while balancing the potential for above normal spring rainfall.