November 2025

Conditions in the Winnipeg River basin remain dry, and little precipitation is expected over the next week. With the drought conditions impacting surrounding basins in Manitoba, water available for hydropower production this winter is limited. Manitoba Hydro’s Fall water and freeze up outlook indicates that system inflows are among the lowest recorded for this time of year in the past 40 years.

As per the adopted Regulation Strategy, outflow from Lac Seul will be increased to the normal range to provide core winter flows on the Winnipeg River in Manitoba. However, given the underlying dry conditions in the English River basin, these outflows are not expected to be maintained through to the spring. Depending on snowpack development, mid-winter outflow adjustments may be required to target the end-of-winter levels recommended in the regulation strategy.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.70 m (1058.7 ft) a 30^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 3.8 cm (1.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease 2 to 3 cm (0.8 to 1.2 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 275 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.10 m (1168.3 ft), a 35^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The lake level decreased by 6.3 cm (2.5 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease 9 to 10.5 cm (3.5 to 4 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow will increase to 370 m³/s on Monday December 1^st.

In preparation for freeze-up, outflows from Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul will be increased next week. These will likely be the final major adjustments before winter, with only minor changes expected in the coming months based on weather conditions.

The Winnipeg River basin remains dry, and flows on the English and Winnipeg Rivers are expected to stay near the lower end of the normal range this winter. Over the coming months, the LWCB will monitor snowpack development and will adjust end-of-winter level targets if needed.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.74 m (1058.8 ft) a 35^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 1 cm (0.5 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease by 1 to 3 cm (0.5 to 2 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow will increase to 275 m³/s on Monday, November 24^th.

Notice: On Monday, November 24^th, the Norman Generating Station will be temporarily shut down for a critical repair. This outage is expected to be short and flow through the Kenora Powerhouse will be maximized during the outage to minimize water level fluctuations downstream on the Winnipeg River.

With the outage and outflow increase occurring on the same day, temporary water level fluctuations directly below the dams are expected. In addition, the Lake of the Woods outflow increase will cause levels along the Winnipeg River to rise by 5 cm (2 in) below the Norman Dam, by 2.5 cm (1 in) above Kimberley Rapids and by 2 cm (0.8 in) at the Dalles. This outflow increase will have no impact on levels at Minaki.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.17 m (1168.5 ft), a 40th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The lake level decreased by 2 cm (0.8 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease by 5 to 8 cm (2 to 3 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow will increase to 300 m³/s on Monday November 24^th and to 325 m³/s on Thursday, November 27^th.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.74 m (1058.86 ft) a 30^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level decreased by 1.4 cm (0.6 in) over the past week and is expected to remain stable or decrease by 2 cm (0.8 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 200 m³/s. With average daily temperatures starting to decrease, Lake of the Woods outflow will increase to 250 m³/s on Monday November 17^th to assist in providing satisfactory flow on the Winnipeg River before freeze-up.

This outflow change will cause levels along the Winnipeg River to increase by 9 cm (3.5 in) below the Norman Dam, by 6.3 cm (2.5 in) above Kimberley Rapids and by 3 cm (1.2 in) at the Dalles. This outflow increase will have no impact on levels at Minaki.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.19 m (1168.58 ft), a 35th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The lake level decreased by 5.1 cm (2 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease 4 to 6 cm (1.5 to 2.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 200 m³/s with a planned outflow increase to 250 m³/s on Wednesday November 19^th.

On October 30, the LWCB held its fall Regulation Meeting in Kenora where it adopted a new Regulation Strategy. The strategy outlines regulation targets for various inflow conditions for the period of November 2025 to March 2026, and was developed considering basin conditions, hydrological and meteorological forecasts and the input from representatives of First Nations, Specific Interest Groups, and Resource Advisors concerned with basin management.

With persisting dry conditions across the Winnipeg River Basin, the strategy for both Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul focuses on maintaining storage until freeze up to provide sufficient flow for the core winter period.

For Lake of the Woods the regulation over the winter takes into consideration preferences of all interest groups, and outflow and drawdown will be adjusted as the winter progresses and conditions change.  For lac Seul, although storage on the lake will allow outflow to be increased to the normal range over the winter, baseflows and antecedent conditions will be considered when drawing the lake down and assessing potential water supply for refill in the spring.   

The current level of the Lake of the Woods is 322.76 m (1058.9 ft) a 30^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The average lake level remained stable over the past week and is expected to remain stable or increase by 1.3 cm (0.5 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 200 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.24 m (1168.8 ft), a 45^th percentile level, within the normal range for this time of year. The lake level decreased 3.0 cm (1 in) over the last week and is expected to decrease from 2.0 to 3.8 cm (0.8 to 1.5 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 200 m³/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

High winds overnight on November 2^nd caused a trip on the transmission line to Ear Falls. As a result, the dam lost power and there was no flow out of Lac Seul for a 6-hour window. The outage caused levels on the English River between Lac Seul and Manitou Falls to drop as the Manitou Falls generating station was still running to provide power to the area. Dam operators were able to restore Lac Seul outflow to 154 m³/s this morning.

To help increase water levels upstream of Manitou Falls, the Lac Seul outflow increase to 200 m³/s originally scheduled for November 5^th, will be rescheduled to today (November 3^rd) after power is restored. With the earlier outflow increase, the level of Lac Seul is expected to drop between 1 to 1.5 cm (0.5 in to 0.6 in) before the next Noticeboard update.