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2023.05.18 Level Forecast and Risk of Above-Normal Precipitation Next Week

Although conditions are expected to be dry over the Victoria Day long weekend, forecasts are indicating above-normal precipitation from May 23 onwards. Both, Environment and Climate Change Canada’s probabilistic forecast, and the National Weather Services’ 6-10 day outlook, are predicting above-normal precipitation starting mid to late next week. Tributary flows, lake inflows and lake levels are already high across the southern half of the basin and this precipitation will amplify those conditions.

At Lake of the Woods and on the Winnipeg River, additional outflow increases will be required to slow the rate of rise on the lake. At these flow rates, the level along the Winnipeg River is expected to continue to rise and levels at Minaki will also rise more with each outflow increase.

In the northern half of the basin, flows and levels are currently in the low-normal range. Depending on the amount of precipitation impacting the Lac Seul and English River basins, outflow changes may or may not be required to maintain normal levels and flow rates.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.96 m (1059.6 ft), a 65th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 10 cm (4 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 7 to 9 cm (2 to 3 in) over the next week. Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 800 m3/s with no changes scheduled at this time.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.29 m (1165.6 ft), a 50th percentile level for this time of year. The lake level increased by 16 cm (6 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 11 to 17 cm (4 to 7 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 100 m3/s with no changes scheduled.