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2022.05.11 Lake Level Forecasts

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 323.40 m (1061.1 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level rose by 25 cm (10 in) over past week.

Inflow to Lake of the Woods is more than double the maximum outflow that is being released through the fully opened dams in Kenora. With more rainfall in the near-term forecast, the level of the lake is forecast to rise by 22 to 30 cm (9-12 in) over the next 7 days, depending on the track of convective storms in next system. There is a small chance of much higher rainfall which would result in higher lake level rise and also a small chance of less level rise.

The 2014 peak level for Lake of the Woods was 323.78 m (1062.2 ft). With the expected rise over the next week, Lake of the Woods will be nearing this level. Continued rise is expected beyond the 7-day forecast window and the lake may exceed the 2014 peak level in May if wet weather continues. The LWCB is not able to forecast the level rise beyond the range of precipitation reliable precipitation forecasts (5-7 days). If the weather in the near term is much drier than forecast, a peak below the 2014 high is possible.

The level of the Winnipeg River level will gradually rise with the with level of Lake of the Woods as the lake provides the pressure to push water through the outlet of the lake in Kenora. If the lake reaches the 2014 peak level, the level of the river will as well, roughly 30 cm (1 ft) above today’s levels near Kenora and near Minaki.

The current level of Lac Seul is 355.53 m (1166.4 ft), a 75th percentile level for this time of year. Inflow to Lac Seul is extremely high, leading to the level of the lake rising by 45 cm (1.5 ft) over the past 7 days. The lake is expected to rise by 55-60 cm (2 ft) over the next 7 days.

Lac Seul outflow is scheduled to be increased from 300 to 400 m³/s on Thursday, May 12. Further increases are being planned for the coming week.

Ontario Power Generation has scheduled a reduction to minimum flow in the Root River Diversion from Lake St. Joseph into Lac Seul for next week. More details will be provided at a later date.

Manitoba Hydro has provided the following forecast for the Whiteshell Region as of May 5.