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July 2022

2022.07.07 June Precipitation

Conditions throughout the basin are improving as drier weather patterns dominated the month of June. Precipitation over the last month was below average for all areas of the basin. The map and table shown below indicate that total basin mean precipitation amounts for the month of June were very consistently between 50 and 100 mm. These amounts corresponded to a range of 11th to 32nd percentile, which is less than normal.

Basin Mean Precipitation June 1-30 / Source: Canadian Precipitation Analysis
June 1-30 Precipitation Totals for Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul

These much drier conditions have caused all tributary flows across the basin to drop considerably and return to high-normal or normal flow rates for this time of year. All major lake inflows have also peaked and have returned to a high-normal range for this time of year. Finally, with these drier conditions being sustained and allowing inflows to continue to trend downward, all major lakes have also peaked. Lac Seul and Namakan Lake levels are very close to their normal range for this time of year. Rainy Lake and Lake of the Woods levels remain exceptionally high, but significant reductions in level are expected for the months of July and August on these two lakes should dry conditions persist.

2022.07.06 Level Forecast

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.10 m (1063.3 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level fell by 1 cm (1/2 in) over the past week. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open and no additional actions can be taken to limit lake level rise.

Upstream of Lake of the Woods, Namakan Lake has returned to normal summer levels while Rainy Lake remains high but is dropping sharply. Flows in tributaries in the Rainy River basin are low following generally drier weather in June. With outflow from Rainy Lake gradually dropping as the lake level falls and forecasted precipitation, the level of Lake of the Woods is expected to remain constant or decrease by 3 cm (0-1 in) over the next 7 days.

As the lake level begins to drop, the outflow from the lake will also slowly fall. This will result in the level of the Winnipeg River between Kenora and Minaki beginning to gradually fall over the next week by 1-2 cm (1/2 in to 1 in).

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.76 m (1170.5 ft), 85th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul is expected to fall by 5-9 cm (2-3 in) over the next 7 days. Lac Seul authorized outflow was reduced to 600 m³/s on Monday, July 4, with no other flow changes currently scheduled.

2022.07.04 Level Forecast

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 324.10 m (1063.3 ft), over 95th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level fell by 1 cm (1/2 in) over the past week. The lake level is above the 2014 peak of 323.78 m (1062.29 ft) and is below the record peak since regulation began of 324.31 m (1064.0 ft), set in July of 1950. The dams in Kenora remain fully open and no additional actions can be taken to limit lake level rise.

Upstream of Lake of the Woods, Namakan Lake has returned to normal summer levels while Rainy Lake remains high but is dropping sharply. Flows in tributaries in the Rainy River basin are low following generally drier weather in June. With outflow from Rainy Lake gradually dropping as the lake level falls, the level of Lake of the Woods is expected to fall by 3-5 cm (1-2 in) over the next 7 days.

As the lake level begins to drop, the outflow from the lake will also slowly fall. This will result in the level of the Winnipeg River between Kenora and Minaki beginning to gradually fall over the next week by 1-2 cm (1/2 in to 1 in).

The current level of Lac Seul is 356.77 m (1170.5 ft), 85th percentile level for this time of year. The level of the main body of Lac Seul is expected to fall by 3-5 cm (1-2 in) over the next 7 days. Lac Seul authorized outflow was reduced to 600 m³/s on Monday, July 4, with no other flow changes currently scheduled.