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Issued 2022.04.26

Rainfall totals from last weekend’s Colorado Low were very high for this time of year, with the highest amounts around Rainy Lake. This is the sixth straight quarter-month period with well-above normal precipitation in the Rainy-Namakan and Lake of the Woods local sub-basins, making this April one of the wettest on record. With the most recent rainfall coming on snow and frozen ground, the rise in flows in tributaries across the region has been rapid.

Left: 2022 April 1-24 Total Precipitation Right: Normal April Precipitation April 1-2014 (1986-2015)

The LWCB was informed that outflow from the Rainy Lake dam at Fort Frances-International Falls into the Rainy River is being maximized in response to the heavy rainfall in that area and rapidly rising Rainy Lake. Tributaries to the Rainy River, including the Big Fork River, Little Fork River, Rapid River, La Vallee River and Pinewood River are near to or have broken record high levels for April. The combination of very high flows out of Rainy Lake and from these tributaries has inflow to Lake of the Woods from the Rainy River at an extremely high rate. Additional runoff from around the lake is also contributing to a rapid rise in the lake level.

Most of the tributaries to Rainy River have either crested or appear to close to cresting for now, with several days of dry weather in the forecast. However, inflow to Lake of the Woods will remain very high and the lake will continue to rise quickly as a result.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.77 m (1058.7 ft), a 70th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level rose by 18 cm (7 in) over the past week and is projected rise 25-35 cm (10-14 in) over the next week. This projection is based on current 7-day precipitation forecasts and expected outflow adjustments from Rainy Lake. Higher rainfall totals or higher outflows could see greater rise in the lake level.

Lake of the Woods outflow was increased from 650 to 725 m³/s on Monday, April 25. Outflow is scheduled to be increased from 725 m³/s to 825 m³/s on Wednesday, April 27. The Winnipeg River is expected to rise as follows in response to this outflow increase, with additional rise possible from local runoff:

  • Below Norman Dam : 30 cm (12 in)
  • Above Kimberley Rapids : 24 cm (10 in)
  • Winnipeg River Marina: 21 cm (8 in)
  • Near Locke Bay: 21 cm (8 in)
  • Above Myrtle Rapids: 21 cm (8 in)
  • Above the Dalles: 20 cm (8 in)
  • Above Throat Rapids: 21 cm (8 in)
  • Minaki: 21 cm (8 in)

Further increases in outflow will follow in the coming days and will be posted on this Notice Board.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.90 m (1164.4 ft), a 50th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level rose by 9 cm (4 in) over the past week and is expected to rise by 2-7 cm (1-3 in) over the next week. Lac Seul authorized outflow is 150 m³/s. An outflow increase is being planned for Friday, April 29. Details will be provided on this Notice Board.

Issued 2022.04.21

Recent precipitation has been well above normal across the Winnipeg River watershed. However, due to cold temperatures most of this has been snowfall and there has only been a gradual increase in stream flows in some areas. With temperatures rising and rainfall forecast through the weekend, the LWCB expects basin flow conditions to rapidly change over the next week, leading to quickly rising water levels in many areas. Due to the potential for rapidly changing flow conditions and unstable ice cover, extra caution should be taken when on or near water bodies across the region.

This rain on snow is expected to cause inflow to Lake of the Woods to rise to an extremely high rate, with the latest lake level forecasts showing between 15-30 cm of lake level rise over the next week. Because the lake was drawn down over the winter to create storage room for the spring melt, a 30 cm water level rise will not result in a high lake level. However, such a rapid filling of the lake would leave limited buffer room for wet conditions later in the spring when the region typically sees the wettest weather of the year.

In response, the LWCB is directing larger outflow increases from Lake of the Woods this week and next. The level of the Winnipeg River will rise quickly due to these outflow increases together with local runoff from rain and melting snow. By next week, the Winnipeg River level is expected to be at a high level for the end of April, comparable to a moderately high June level. The higher outflow will help to conserve storage room in the lake, reducing the risk of high levels on Lake of the Woods and along the Winnipeg River should wet conditions continue.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.58 m (1058.3 ft), a 50th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level rose by 9 cm (4 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 15-30 cm (6-12 in) over the next week with the rapid rise in inflow.

Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is scheduled to be increased from 575 m³/s to 650 m³/s on Friday, April 22 and from 650 m³/s to 725 m³/s on Monday, April 25. Each of these outflow increases is expected to raise the level of the Winnipeg River as follows:

  • Below Norman Dam: 18 cm (7 in)
  • Above Kimberley Rapids: 18 cm (7 in)
  • Winnipeg River Marina: 15 cm (6 in)
  • Near Locke Bay: 15 cm (6 in)
  • Above Myrtle Rapids: 15 cm (6 in)
  • Above the Dalles: 14 cm (5.5 in)
  • Above Throat Rapids: 14 cm (5.5 in)
  • Minaki: no change from the first flow increase, 2 cm (1 in) from the second

Additional short-term river level rise is expected due to local runoff from rainfall and snowmelt.

Further outflow increases are likely next week. Details for these outflow changes will be provided on this Notice Board.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.81m (1164.1 ft), a 45th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level rose by 6 cm (2 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 15-25 cm (6-10 in) over the next week.

Lac Seul authorized outflow is scheduled to be increased from 100 m³/s to 150 m³/s on Friday, April 22.

Issued 2022.04.19

April continues to see very high precipitation amounts and flows are quickly rising across many areas of the watershed. Cold temperatures over the past week have slowed the spring melt response. However, warmer temperatures with additional rainfall this week will see flows rising much more quickly.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.56 m (1058.3 ft), a 50th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level rose by 9 cm (4 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 15-20 cm (6-8 in) over the next week with the rapid rise in inflow.

Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is scheduled to be increased from 500 m³/s to 575 m³/s on Wednesday April 20. The Winnipeg River level immediately below Norman Dam will rise by approximately 18 cm (7 in) as a result of this flow increase. The river level rise will be less with distance downstream of Kenora with no effect expected at Minaki.

An additional outflow increase is likely on Friday, April 22, with further increases to follow next week. Details for these outflow changes will be provided on this Notice Board .

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.79 m (1164.0 ft), a 40th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level rose by 6 cm (2 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 12-22 cm (5-9 in) over the next week.

Lac Seul authorized outflow is 100 m³/s with no changes currently scheduled.

Issued 2022.04.14

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.50 m (1058.1 ft), a 45th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 4.9 cm (1.9 in) over the past week and is expected to increase by 6-13 cm (2.4-5.1 in) over the next week.

Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 500 m³/s with no changes currently scheduled.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.76 m (1163.9 ft), a 40th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level increased by 4.8 cm (1.9 in) over the past week and is expected to increase 7-13 cm (2.7-5.1 in) over the next week.

Lac Seul authorized outflow is 100 m³/s with no changes currently scheduled.

Issued 2022.04.07

The spring freshet is underway for many areas of the Winnipeg River drainage basin. Precipitation over the past few days has added to the water content of the snowpack and resulted in a slow rise in flows in many tributaries.

7-day Observed Precipitation. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Regional Deterministic Precipitation Analysis

The LWCB is regulating outflows from Lac Seul and Lake of the Woods to begin refill of these lakes according to its recently adopted Regulation Strategy. The rate of lake level rise and the associated changes in outflow from these lakes will depend largely on the precipitation received over the coming weeks.

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.44 m (1057.9 ft), a 35th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level was stable over the past week and is expected to rise by 3-6 cm (1-2 in) over the next week. Meteorological forecasts indicate the potential for above-normal April precipitation from April 13-14. If this develops, the lake will rise at a faster rate.

Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is scheduled to be increased from 450 m³/s to 475 m³/s on Friday, April 8 and to 500 m³/s on Monday, April 11. The level of the Winnipeg River immediately below Norman Dam is expected to rise by 6 cm (2 in) as a result of each of these flow increases, while the river level at Minaki will not be affected. Additional flow increases next week are likely if precipitation forecasts are accurate.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.70 m (1163.7 ft), a 40th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level rose by 1 cm (1/2 in) the past week and is expected to rise by 5-8 cm (2-3 in) over the next week.

Lac Seul authorized outflow was reduced from 125 m³/s to 100 m³/s on Tuesday, April 5. No flow changes are currently scheduled.

Issued 2022.03.31

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.43 m (1057.8 ft), a 40th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 2 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease by 1-3 cm (1 in) over the next week.

Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 450 m³/s with no changes currently scheduled.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.68 m (1163.6 ft), a 30th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level was stable over the past week and is expected to change little over the next week.

Lac Seul authorized outflow is scheduled to be reduced from 150 m³/s to 125 m³/s on Friday, April 1.

Issued 2022.03.23

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.45 m (1057.9 ft), a 45th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 3 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease by 1-2 cm (1 in) over the next week.

Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is scheduled to be increased from 425 m³/s to 450 m³/s on Thursday, March 24. The Winnipeg River level immediately below Norman Dam will rise by 6 cm (2 in) as a result of this flow change. The rise will be smaller with distance downstream, with no level change expected at Minaki as a result of this flow increase.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.68 m (1163.6 ft), a 30th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level was stable over the past week and is expected to change little over the next week.

Lac Seul authorized outflow is 150 m³/s with no changes currently scheduled.

Issued 2022.03.17

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.47 m (1058.1 ft), a 50th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 3 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease by 3-4 cm (1-2 in) over the next week.

Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is scheduled to be increased from 400 m³/s to 425 m³/s on Friday, March 18. The Winnipeg River level immediately below Norman Dam will rise by 6 cm (2 in) as a result of this flow change. The rise will be smaller with distance downstream, with no change expected at Minaki as a result of this flow change.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.68 m (1163.6 ft), a 25th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 3 cm (1in) over the past week and is expected to change little over the next week.

Lac Seul authorized outflow will be reduced from 200 m³/s to 150 m³/s on Thursday, March 17.

Issued 2022.03.10

The current level of Lake of the Woods is 322.51 m (1058.1 ft), a 50th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 3 cm (1 in) over the past week and is expected to decrease by 3-4 cm (1-2 in) over the next week.

Lake of the Woods authorized outflow is 400 m³/s with no changes currently scheduled.

The current level of Lac Seul is 354.70 m (1163.7 ft), a 25th percentile level for this time of year. The average lake level declined by 6 cm (2 in) over the past week and is expected to fall by 2 to 3 cm (1 in) over the next week.

Lac Seul authorized outflow will be reduced from 250 m³/s to 200 m³/s on Thursday, March 10.

Spring Regulation Strategy Adopted

The Lake of the Woods Control Board held a Regulation Meeting on Tuesday, March 8.

Regulation Meetings are held several times a year to review basin conditions and forecasts in order to set a seasonal operational strategy. The Board also considers input from those invited to the meetings, including representatives from First Nations, Specific Interest Groups and Resource Agencies. The seasonal strategy describes how the Board intends to regulate outflows from Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul under a range of potential flow conditions.

The Board adopted a seasonal Regulation Strategy that includes goals for the end of the winter drawdown period (March 31 for Lake of the Woods, April 15 for Lac Seul) and for the refill period until the end of June.

Seasonal conditions examined by the Board included the following, all of which will play a role in the spring regulation of Lake of the Woods, Lac Seul, and the Winnipeg and English Rivers:

  • Current Hydrological Conditions

Long-standing drought conditions remain across the Winnipeg River drainage basin, with classifications by Canadian and American agencies ranging from abnormally dry to severe drought. This is an improvement from the summer and early fall of 2021, where drought was severe to exceptional. The improvement is due to late fall rainfall, which has resulted in river flows across most of the drainage basin slowly climbing from very low summer rates to the low end of the normal range for winter.

  • Snowpack development

The accumulated snowpack depth is higher than in recent years. Some areas have very high snowpack depth, including around Kenora, Ear Falls, and south of Rainy River in Minnesota. In the upper Rainy-Namakan watershed, the snowpack is on the high end of the normal range for early March. The LWCB expects that the substantial snowpack will resolve the drought conditions.

When considering potential for spring runoff, the water content of the snowpack is more important than the snow depth. Estimates of snow water equivalent, based on a variety of data sources including field measurements, indicate moderately high to high snow water for the start of March. Generally, the snow water at this point of the winter is similar to that seen in 2019 and 2020, and substantially less than in the last year with high spring water levels, 2014. Historic Snow Water Equivalent maps are available at NOAA’s website (select year, and click on Redraw Map).

Below are estimates from 2022, 2020, and 2014.

Modeled Snow Water Equivalent, March 10, 2022 – NOAA
Modeled Snow Water Equivalent, March 10, 2020 – NOAA
Modeled Snow Water Equivalent, March 10, 2014 – NOAA
  • Winter Temperatures

Colder winters generally correspond to later thawing of the ground in the spring. Runoff from snowmelt and rainfall cannot be absorbed in frozen ground, and will instead flow to wetlands, streams, rivers and lakes. Early spring rainfall before the ground has thawed can, therefore, lead to rapid rise in streamflows.

This winter has been colder than normal. Heating Degree Days are a simple measure of accumulated cold through the winter that can be useful in understanding the severity of the winter. Heating degree days from December 1 in Kenora are 85th percentile for data back to 1967. This is the coldest since 2014, though only slightly greater than 2018. However, anecdotal reports that early season snow has provided an insulating layer to the ground, thereby limiting frost depth, are consistent with limited frost depth measurements.

  • Spring outlook

Seasonal forecasts from Canadian and American weather agencies indicate an equal likelihood of above or below normal precipitation through May, with the American seasonal forecast suggesting a warmer spring is more likely.


How quickly flows rise across the basin will be determined by the weather conditions, including temperature, wind and, most importantly, rainfall. While there is substantial snow in the basin, a dry spring may still result in lower water levels for the summer, whereas a wet spring could see high flows develop. The amount of rain and its timing relative to the melting snow and thawing ground, will be the most important factors in how the spring flows develop.

The Board will closely monitor the development of the spring melt as it continues to direct drawdown of the lakes in March. Once the spring melt is underway, the Board will follow the newly adopted strategy to balance rising lake and river levels to try balance objectives such as fisheries, wild rice, navigation and risk of high water.